Wait, how do you get to 17%-25% chance of a crisis situation if there’s only a 2.5% chance of omicron causing severe disease in vaccinated/previously infected people? Isn’t that the vast majority of people in the US?
My understanding is that a few months after vaccination the vaccines provide ~85% (?) protection against hospitalisation compared to an unvaccinated person.
I think the 2.5% prediction is intended to indicate that Zvi thinks it’s highly unlikely that this will drop to 20% protection from Omicron (or similarly low number). However even a drop to 70% (which seems more reasonable) would mean a doubling of hospitalisations per case.
Even with this, my model of a crisis situation is more to do with a huge increase in infections than with increasing hospitalisation rates per case.
We know the vaccination rates (NPR). And we have estimates for the the number of infected persons (Estimated COVID-19 Burden). But do we have a trustworthy estimate for the intersection of those two groups (and with that an estimate for the total number of previously infected and/or vaccinated)? That would be important information, ideally statewise.
The other important data point would be the intensive care capacity.
We could start by naively assuming that recovering from covid infection and vaccination against covid are completely independent. For a state with 50% vaccination rate, there would be 50% of the unvaccinated and about half of all unvaccinated would be previously infected.
Wait, how do you get to 17%-25% chance of a crisis situation if there’s only a 2.5% chance of omicron causing severe disease in vaccinated/previously infected people? Isn’t that the vast majority of people in the US?
My understanding is that a few months after vaccination the vaccines provide ~85% (?) protection against hospitalisation compared to an unvaccinated person.
I think the 2.5% prediction is intended to indicate that Zvi thinks it’s highly unlikely that this will drop to 20% protection from Omicron (or similarly low number). However even a drop to 70% (which seems more reasonable) would mean a doubling of hospitalisations per case.
Even with this, my model of a crisis situation is more to do with a huge increase in infections than with increasing hospitalisation rates per case.
Because there aren’t enough hospital beds/nurses etc
We know the vaccination rates (NPR). And we have estimates for the the number of infected persons (Estimated COVID-19 Burden). But do we have a trustworthy estimate for the intersection of those two groups (and with that an estimate for the total number of previously infected and/or vaccinated)? That would be important information, ideally statewise.
The other important data point would be the intensive care capacity.
We could start by naively assuming that recovering from covid infection and vaccination against covid are completely independent. For a state with 50% vaccination rate, there would be 50% of the unvaccinated and about half of all unvaccinated would be previously infected.