There seem some foundational questions to the ‘Rationality project’, and (reprising my role as querulous critic) are oddly neglected in the 5-10 year history of the rationalist community: conspicuously, I find the best insight into these questions comes from psychology academia.
Is rationality best thought of as a single construct?
It roughly makes sense to talk of ‘intelligence’ or ‘physical fitness’ because performance in sub-components positively correlate: although it is hard to say which of an elite ultramarathoner, Judoka, or shotputter is fittest, I can confidently say all of them are fitter than I, and I am fitter than someone who is bedbound.
Is the same true of rationality? If it were the case that performance on tests of (say) callibration, sunk cost fallacy, and anchoring were all independent, then this would suggest ‘rationality’ is a circle our natural language draws around a grab-bag of skills or practices. The term could therefore mislead us into thinking it is a unified skill which we can ‘generally’ improve, and our efforts are better addressed at a finer level of granularity.
I think this is plausibly the case (or at least closer to the truth). The main evidence I have in mind is Stanovich’s CART, whereby tests on individual sub-components we’d mark as fairly ‘pure rationality’ (e.g. base-rate neglect, framing, overconfidence—other parts of the CART look very IQ-testy like syllogistic reasoning, on which more later) have only weak correlations with one another (e.g. 0.2 ish).
Is rationality a skill, or a trait?
Perhaps key is that rationality (general sense) is something you can get stronger at or ‘level up’ in. Yet there is a facially plausible story that rationality (especially so-called ‘epistemic’ rationality) is something more like IQ: essentially a trait where training can at best enhance performance on sub-components yet not transfer back to the broader construct. Briefly:
Overall measures of rationality (principally Stanovich’s CART) correlate about 0.7 with IQ—not much worse than IQ test subtests correlate with one another or g.
Infamous challenges in transfer. People whose job relies on a particular ‘rationality skill’ (e.g. gamblers and calibration) show greater performance in this area but not, as I recall, transfer improvements to others. This improved performance is often not only isolated but also context dependent: people may learn to avoid a particular cognitive bias in their professional lives, but remain generally susceptible to it otherwise.
The general dearth of well-evidenced successes from training. (cf. the old TAM panel on this topic, where most were autumnal).
For superforecasters, the GJP sees it can get some boost from training, but (as I understand it) the majority of their performance is attributed to selection, grouping, and aggregation.
It wouldn’t necessarily be ‘game over’ for the ‘Rationality project’ even if this turns out to be the true story. Even if it is the case that ‘drilling vocab’ doesn’t really improve my g, I might value a larger vocabulary for its own sake. In a similar way, even if there’s no transfer, some rationality skills might prove generally useful (and ‘improvable’) such that drilling them to be useful on their own terms.
The superforecasting point can be argued the other way: that training can still get modest increases in performance in a composite test of epistemic rationality from people already exhibiting elite performance. But it does seem crucial to get a general sense of how well (and how broadly) can training be expected to work: else embarking on a program to ‘improve rationality’ may end up as ill-starred as the ‘brain-training’ games/apps fad a few years ago.
My personal experience is that I had most of what enables me to be epistemically rational from childhood (so probably genetic), but that the exposure to behavioral economics, science and other rationality-adjacent memes early in my life significantly boosted that genetic seed.
Another personal observation: I have never felt someone I know has improved their rationality. Though I also don’t know almost anyone who even cares about becoming more rational.
There seem some foundational questions to the ‘Rationality project’, and (reprising my role as querulous critic) are oddly neglected in the 5-10 year history of the rationalist community: conspicuously, I find the best insight into these questions comes from psychology academia.
Is rationality best thought of as a single construct?
It roughly makes sense to talk of ‘intelligence’ or ‘physical fitness’ because performance in sub-components positively correlate: although it is hard to say which of an elite ultramarathoner, Judoka, or shotputter is fittest, I can confidently say all of them are fitter than I, and I am fitter than someone who is bedbound.
Is the same true of rationality? If it were the case that performance on tests of (say) callibration, sunk cost fallacy, and anchoring were all independent, then this would suggest ‘rationality’ is a circle our natural language draws around a grab-bag of skills or practices. The term could therefore mislead us into thinking it is a unified skill which we can ‘generally’ improve, and our efforts are better addressed at a finer level of granularity.
I think this is plausibly the case (or at least closer to the truth). The main evidence I have in mind is Stanovich’s CART, whereby tests on individual sub-components we’d mark as fairly ‘pure rationality’ (e.g. base-rate neglect, framing, overconfidence—other parts of the CART look very IQ-testy like syllogistic reasoning, on which more later) have only weak correlations with one another (e.g. 0.2 ish).
Is rationality a skill, or a trait?
Perhaps key is that rationality (general sense) is something you can get stronger at or ‘level up’ in. Yet there is a facially plausible story that rationality (especially so-called ‘epistemic’ rationality) is something more like IQ: essentially a trait where training can at best enhance performance on sub-components yet not transfer back to the broader construct. Briefly:
Overall measures of rationality (principally Stanovich’s CART) correlate about 0.7 with IQ—not much worse than IQ test subtests correlate with one another or g.
Infamous challenges in transfer. People whose job relies on a particular ‘rationality skill’ (e.g. gamblers and calibration) show greater performance in this area but not, as I recall, transfer improvements to others. This improved performance is often not only isolated but also context dependent: people may learn to avoid a particular cognitive bias in their professional lives, but remain generally susceptible to it otherwise.
The general dearth of well-evidenced successes from training. (cf. the old TAM panel on this topic, where most were autumnal).
For superforecasters, the GJP sees it can get some boost from training, but (as I understand it) the majority of their performance is attributed to selection, grouping, and aggregation.
It wouldn’t necessarily be ‘game over’ for the ‘Rationality project’ even if this turns out to be the true story. Even if it is the case that ‘drilling vocab’ doesn’t really improve my g, I might value a larger vocabulary for its own sake. In a similar way, even if there’s no transfer, some rationality skills might prove generally useful (and ‘improvable’) such that drilling them to be useful on their own terms.
The superforecasting point can be argued the other way: that training can still get modest increases in performance in a composite test of epistemic rationality from people already exhibiting elite performance. But it does seem crucial to get a general sense of how well (and how broadly) can training be expected to work: else embarking on a program to ‘improve rationality’ may end up as ill-starred as the ‘brain-training’ games/apps fad a few years ago.
This point seems absolutely crucial; and I really appreciate the cited evidence.
My personal experience is that I had most of what enables me to be epistemically rational from childhood (so probably genetic), but that the exposure to behavioral economics, science and other rationality-adjacent memes early in my life significantly boosted that genetic seed. Another personal observation: I have never felt someone I know has improved their rationality. Though I also don’t know almost anyone who even cares about becoming more rational.