Adam Zerner comments on (Cryonics) can I be frozen before being near-death?

[Adam Zerner]

Wait But Why’s Why Cryonics Makes Sense is a great overview. Some reasons that come to my mind:

• Issues with the initial preservation

• Preservation doesn’t last

• We never develop the technology necessary for revival

• Social reasons why future generations don’t choose to revive

• Legal reasons why future generations don’t choose to revive

• The cyronics organization having financial issues

• Humanity is wiped out by one of the many existential risks we face

Also, I collected some these data points in the past regarding what various people who I respect think about the probability of revival:

• Steven Harris (Alcor): 0.2-15%

• Michael Perry (Alcor): 13-77%

• Robin Hanson: 6%

• Experienced LWers: 15%

• Inexperienced LWers: 21%

• Ralph Merkle: >85% (conditional on things like good preservation, no dystopia, and nanotech)

• A lot of people don’t give numbers because it’s too speculative. (Ben Best)

• 69 super smart leading scientists say that it’s a “credible possibility”. (Although there’s suspiciously few neuroscientists)

Note that these predictions are all however many years old and the authors might have since changed their minds.

[niplav]

Also: Metaculus gives 4% for revival happening before 2050, and 5% for personal revival.