I think you are underrating the number of high-stakes decisions in the world. A few examples: whether or not to hire someone, the design of some mass-produced item, which job to take, who to marry. There are many more.
These are all cases where making the decision 100x faster is of little value, because it will take a long time to see if the decision was good or not after it is made. And where making a better decision is of high value. (Many of these will also be the hardest tasks for AI to do well on, because there is very little training data about them).
True, it depends on the ratio mundane and high stakes decisions. Athough there are high stakes decisions that are also time dependant. See the example about high frequency trading (no human in the loop and the algorithm makes trades in the millions).
Furthermore your conclusion that time independant high stakes decisions will be the tasks where humans provide most value seems true to me. AI will easily be superior when there are time constraint. Absent such constraints, humans will have a better chance of competing with AI. And economic strategic decisions are often times not extremely time constrained (at least a couple of hours or days of time).
In economic situations the amount of high stakes decisions will be limited (only a few people make desicions about large sums of money and strategy) . Given a multinational with a 100.000 employees, only very few will take high stake decisions. But these decisions might have a significant impact on competitiveness. Thus the multinational with a human ceo might out compete a full AI company.
In a strategic situation time might give more of an advantage (i am economist not a military expert so I am really guessing here). My guess would be that a drone without a human in the loop could have a significant advantage (thus pressures might rise to push for high stake decision making by drones (human lives)).
I think you are underrating the number of high-stakes decisions in the world. A few examples: whether or not to hire someone, the design of some mass-produced item, which job to take, who to marry. There are many more.
These are all cases where making the decision 100x faster is of little value, because it will take a long time to see if the decision was good or not after it is made. And where making a better decision is of high value. (Many of these will also be the hardest tasks for AI to do well on, because there is very little training data about them).
True, it depends on the ratio mundane and high stakes decisions. Athough there are high stakes decisions that are also time dependant. See the example about high frequency trading (no human in the loop and the algorithm makes trades in the millions).
Furthermore your conclusion that time independant high stakes decisions will be the tasks where humans provide most value seems true to me. AI will easily be superior when there are time constraint. Absent such constraints, humans will have a better chance of competing with AI. And economic strategic decisions are often times not extremely time constrained (at least a couple of hours or days of time).
In economic situations the amount of high stakes decisions will be limited (only a few people make desicions about large sums of money and strategy) . Given a multinational with a 100.000 employees, only very few will take high stake decisions. But these decisions might have a significant impact on competitiveness. Thus the multinational with a human ceo might out compete a full AI company.
In a strategic situation time might give more of an advantage (i am economist not a military expert so I am really guessing here). My guess would be that a drone without a human in the loop could have a significant advantage (thus pressures might rise to push for high stake decision making by drones (human lives)).