Great post! I especially enjoyed the intuitive visualizations for how the heavy-tailed distributions affect the degree of overoptimization of X.
As a possibly interesting connection, your set of criteria for an alignment plan can also be thought of as criteria for selecting a model specification that approximates the ideal specification well, especially trying to ensure that the approximation error is light-tailed.
Great post! I especially enjoyed the intuitive visualizations for how the heavy-tailed distributions affect the degree of overoptimization of X.
As a possibly interesting connection, your set of criteria for an alignment plan can also be thought of as criteria for selecting a model specification that approximates the ideal specification well, especially trying to ensure that the approximation error is light-tailed.