Yeah, although I am bullish on the general direction of RSI, I also think that in the details it factors into many dimensions of improvement. Some of which are likely fast-but-bounded and will quickly plateau, others which are slow-but-not-near-term-bounded… The fact that there are many different dimensions over which RSI might operate makes it hard to predict precisely, but does give some general predictions.
For instance, we might expect it not to be completely blocked (since there will be many independent dimensions along which to apply optimization pressure, so blocking one won’t block them all).
Another prediction we might make is that seeing some rapid progress doesn’t guarantee that either a complete wall will be hit soon or that progress will continue just as fast or faster. Things might just be messy, with a jagged inconsistent line proceeding up and to the right. Zoom out enough, and it may look smooth, but for our very-relevant-to-us near-term dynamics, it could just be quite noisy.
Yeah, although I am bullish on the general direction of RSI, I also think that in the details it factors into many dimensions of improvement. Some of which are likely fast-but-bounded and will quickly plateau, others which are slow-but-not-near-term-bounded… The fact that there are many different dimensions over which RSI might operate makes it hard to predict precisely, but does give some general predictions.
For instance, we might expect it not to be completely blocked (since there will be many independent dimensions along which to apply optimization pressure, so blocking one won’t block them all).
Another prediction we might make is that seeing some rapid progress doesn’t guarantee that either a complete wall will be hit soon or that progress will continue just as fast or faster. Things might just be messy, with a jagged inconsistent line proceeding up and to the right. Zoom out enough, and it may look smooth, but for our very-relevant-to-us near-term dynamics, it could just be quite noisy.