Really interesting, I like the use of Aumann’s Agreement Theorem, but not sure yet about the claims against indexing.
I have some problems with the SIA vs SSA discussion:
As I see it, SIA and SSA are not alternative for each other, they are both true, and cancel each other, so the doomsday argument is true argument (when ignoring other information like SIA) and also the claim for more life is true (when ignoring SSA) - but together the claims are false. My ranking is evidence for doomsday, but my existence is evidence for more life, when putting them together (in Bayes theorem) they just cancel. No paradoxes.
Really interesting, I like the use of Aumann’s Agreement Theorem, but not sure yet about the claims against indexing.
I have some problems with the SIA vs SSA discussion:
As I see it, SIA and SSA are not alternative for each other, they are both true, and cancel each other, so the doomsday argument is true argument (when ignoring other information like SIA) and also the claim for more life is true (when ignoring SSA) - but together the claims are false. My ranking is evidence for doomsday, but my existence is evidence for more life, when putting them together (in Bayes theorem) they just cancel. No paradoxes.