The question “which options are long-term rational answers?” corresponds immediately to the hypothesis “among the options are some long-term rational answers” and can be investigated in the same way.
Incorrect. Prove that one option is a long-term rational answer and you have proved the hypothesis “among the options are some long-term rational answers”. That is nowhere near completing answering the question “which options are long-term rational answers”
My hypothesis was much, much more limited than “among the options are some long-term rational answers”. It specified which of the options was a long-term rational answer. It further specified that all of the other options were not long-term rational answers. It is much, much easier to disprove my hypothesis than the broader hypothesis “among the options are some long-term rational answers” which gives it correspondingly more power.
If you really think that people here need to be educated as to what a hypothesis is, then a) it’d be better to link to a wikipedia definition and b) why are you bothering to post here?
Fully grokking Eliezer’s post that I linked would have given you all of the above reply. The wikipedia definition is less clear than Eliezer’s post. I post here because this community is more than capable of helping/forcing me to clarify my logic and rationality.
I didn’t downvote because you were right that the hypothesis I provided (there are some rational options) was not equivalent to the question (which are the rational options). This is quite a fundamental point, so extra black marks to me for being careless.
However, Einstein’s Arrogance doesn’t deal with this fundamental point, so I disagree with “would have given you all of the above reply” and still dispute its relevance to Misha’s original comment.
ETA: also you didn’t address “what is a short-term rational answer?”. Maybe these are possible reasons for downvoting?
Incorrect. Prove that one option is a long-term rational answer and you have proved the hypothesis “among the options are some long-term rational answers”. That is nowhere near completing answering the question “which options are long-term rational answers”
My hypothesis was much, much more limited than “among the options are some long-term rational answers”. It specified which of the options was a long-term rational answer. It further specified that all of the other options were not long-term rational answers. It is much, much easier to disprove my hypothesis than the broader hypothesis “among the options are some long-term rational answers” which gives it correspondingly more power.
Fully grokking Eliezer’s post that I linked would have given you all of the above reply. The wikipedia definition is less clear than Eliezer’s post. I post here because this community is more than capable of helping/forcing me to clarify my logic and rationality.
Could someone give me a hint as to why this particular comment which was specifically in answer to a question is being downvoted? I don’t get it.
I didn’t downvote because you were right that the hypothesis I provided (there are some rational options) was not equivalent to the question (which are the rational options). This is quite a fundamental point, so extra black marks to me for being careless.
However, Einstein’s Arrogance doesn’t deal with this fundamental point, so I disagree with “would have given you all of the above reply” and still dispute its relevance to Misha’s original comment.
ETA: also you didn’t address “what is a short-term rational answer?”. Maybe these are possible reasons for downvoting?