Basically just this one comment sent me down a (productive) rabbit hole of looking into the idea of the risk-uncertainty distinction, resulting in:
A post in which I argue that an absolute risk-uncertainty distinction doesn’t really make sense and leads to bad decision-making procedures
A post in which I argue that acting as if there’s a risk-uncertainty distinction, or using it as a rule of thumb, probably isn’t useful either, compared to just speaking in terms along the lines of “more” or “less” trustworthy/well-grounded/whatever probabilities. (I.e., I argue that it’s not useful to use terms that imply a categorical distinction, rather than a continuous, gradual shift.)
Given that you’re someone who uses the risk-uncertainty distinction, and thus presumably either thinks that it makes sense in absolute terms or is at least useful as rough categorisation, I’d be interested in your thoughts on those posts. (One motivation for writing them was to lay out what seems to me the best arguments, and then see if someone could poke holes in them and thus improve my thinking.)
Basically just this one comment sent me down a (productive) rabbit hole of looking into the idea of the risk-uncertainty distinction, resulting in:
A post in which I argue that an absolute risk-uncertainty distinction doesn’t really make sense and leads to bad decision-making procedures
A post in which I argue that acting as if there’s a risk-uncertainty distinction, or using it as a rule of thumb, probably isn’t useful either, compared to just speaking in terms along the lines of “more” or “less” trustworthy/well-grounded/whatever probabilities. (I.e., I argue that it’s not useful to use terms that imply a categorical distinction, rather than a continuous, gradual shift.)
Given that you’re someone who uses the risk-uncertainty distinction, and thus presumably either thinks that it makes sense in absolute terms or is at least useful as rough categorisation, I’d be interested in your thoughts on those posts. (One motivation for writing them was to lay out what seems to me the best arguments, and then see if someone could poke holes in them and thus improve my thinking.)
Will look and see if I can add some useful thought there. Thanks.