Ah Mr. Cummings… he may actually be literally too clever for his own good… his disdain for “the plebs” is all too readily on display ;) You should take a look at his wonderful ideas about data privacy. And yes, having followed Brexit both online and “in person” I am fairly familiar with all sides of the argument. My “default position” in matters of mass-made choices and decisions is that I never assume that a great many people are, in fact, dumb, even if it may be really tempting to think so. Their actions always have some logic, even if faulty/biased/etc. and it is there where the lack of reasoning occurs. We are here on a blog dedicated in no small part to exactly this problem :)
However—Brexit is a fairly difficult case: Anyone who voted in favor of it could not have done so for objective reasons. This is because there actually was no coherent plan what so ever to base ones choices on. Vague (and proven misleading) claims, appeals to national sovereignty (without concordant elaboration what exactly this sovereignty would make possible) etc. - a vote for Brexit came as close as one can come to a vote for the Unknown. Unless you’re in a concentration camp, this is hardly ever the most rational choice.
And—smart as they may be on paper, to take the Have Your Cake And Eat It Too-position that it is even remotely possible to have a better deal with the EU while no longer a member is surely a galaxy-size fail of miscalculation, hubris, or both. I realize that a big part of the EU-UK negotiations are actually a complex game of chicken, but the very fact this “type” of game was chosen instead of a more cooperative approach is in itself fairly ignorant.
Though it may be helpful in this context to define “intelligence” more precisely; is it “raw computing power” or “adeptness at achieving ones’ desired outcomes”...? While obviously related, those two things are most certainly not the same. Me personally being rather at the pragmatic/utilitarian end of the spectrum, think more in terms of the latter :)
And yes, having followed Brexit both online and “in person” I am fairly familiar with all sides of the argument.
The idea that you are familiar with all sides of the argument because you are aware of all arguments that were made publically seems ignorant.
It’s important to distinguish someone having different goals from someone with intelligence. Cummings believes that deregulation is the way to economic growth and the point of leaving the EU was to be able to deregulated and not be bound by EU legislation such as the privacy regulation.
a vote for Brexit came as close as one can come to a vote for the Unknown. Unless you’re in a concentration camp, this is hardly ever the most rational choice.
If you want substantial positive change, then you need to decide for the unknown. Accepting dealing with the unknown was a foundation for a lot of human progress before the Great Stagnation and trying to regulate it out of existence had a cost.
It’s not a trivial analysis about whether or not that’s a good choice.
Though it may be helpful in this context to define “intelligence” more precisely; is it “raw computing power” or “adeptness at achieving ones’ desired outcomes”...?
A lot of desired outcomes of political actors are not known to you. If you look at Dominic Cummings he managed to get a lot of political power for running the leave campaign.
Having a no deal result means that there’s more room for new policies to be created which might be desirable for Cummings et al.
Cummings might well have overplayed his hand and go down because he angered enough people and didn’t took the COVID-19 rules seriously enough.
Well—this chain could go on ad infinitum.. all I was trying to say is:
- I am really trying to understand why people voted for Brexit and want to find answers that do not boil down to “they were ignorant/dumb/racists”, however tempting it might be; - The job of politicians is to serve the interests of the country they serve. If they have other reasons for pursuing certain policies they are being corrupt; - If you are going to advocate voting for “Unknown” then you better have a very good idea of what you want instead, how you will bring it about and how it will materially help your constituents in ways that are tangible and can be measured;
I am not claiming to know everything the UK government and its people think, though if you follow your logic to only moderate extremes any discussion of complex policies is fundamentally pointless guesswork. That isn’t necessarily false, mind you… compared to the average person, I’d assess my own knowledge of Brexit somewhere above the median for a non-UK resident, and probably below someone who actually lives there everyday. On the other hand, it is easier for me to be dispassionate as I don’t have a dog in that race :)
I am not claiming to know everything the UK government and its people think, though if you follow your logic to only moderate extremes any discussion of complex policies is fundamentally pointless guesswork.
You are making arguments that depend on the conclusion that you who what they think. As long as you understand that you don’t know what they think you can’t access their intelligence by looking at those decisions.
If you are going to advocate voting for “Unknown” then you better have a very good idea of what you want instead
Allowing more economic growth through deregulation and more rational laws is an idea that was articulated and one that they are working on. It’s not very specific but specific 4-year plans don’t work that well.
Telling the public about how you get the more rational laws by hiring superforcasters and building those seeing rooms is more specific but not the level of argument that the public is easily going to digest.
Seems to me that the relation to your original question “why don’t we attribute historial events to the intelligence of their actors” is that by this logic, historians of the future might conclude that Dominic Cummings was retarded. (Assuming the records of his writing would be lost.) If this logic doesn’t work reliably now, it was probably not more reliable in the past.
“raw computing power” or “adeptness at achieving ones’ desired outcomes”
If you go for the second one, then you’re essentially suggesting that sometimes we should explain a person’s success (failure) in terms of their innate tendency to succeed (fail). This sounds like a mysterious explanation. It’s like saying that sleeping medicine works because it has a dormitive potency.
I’m not saying the second definition is never useful, just not in this context.
I am not sure if I follow :) For starters, what is an “innate tendency to succeed”...? How is that even a thing? One might have a set of personal attributes that, given a bunch of challenges, might prove to be beneficial in increasing chances of getting what you want.. like charisma or being especially adept at detecting what people actually need, or when they are lying… but it would be a bit… irrational… to call that a innate tendency...? I mean I know there’s plenty of people who would do that (and in so doing, make into a reputation that then becomes feared and actually helps in being victorious when dealing with those who are aware of said reputation...) but it is still an irrational human construct.
Judging the intelligence of an actor based on his or her incidence of goal attainment seems to me a very pragmatic and unbiased way of ascribing overall success and understanding of the challenges in the situations being faced.
Also, in various places you seem to be moving back and forth between explaining events in terms of how smart a decision was, vs how smart a person was. These are different (though of course related).
Ah Mr. Cummings… he may actually be literally too clever for his own good… his disdain for “the plebs” is all too readily on display ;) You should take a look at his wonderful ideas about data privacy. And yes, having followed Brexit both online and “in person” I am fairly familiar with all sides of the argument. My “default position” in matters of mass-made choices and decisions is that I never assume that a great many people are, in fact, dumb, even if it may be really tempting to think so. Their actions always have some logic, even if faulty/biased/etc. and it is there where the lack of reasoning occurs. We are here on a blog dedicated in no small part to exactly this problem :)
However—Brexit is a fairly difficult case: Anyone who voted in favor of it could not have done so for objective reasons. This is because there actually was no coherent plan what so ever to base ones choices on. Vague (and proven misleading) claims, appeals to national sovereignty (without concordant elaboration what exactly this sovereignty would make possible) etc. - a vote for Brexit came as close as one can come to a vote for the Unknown. Unless you’re in a concentration camp, this is hardly ever the most rational choice.
And—smart as they may be on paper, to take the Have Your Cake And Eat It Too-position that it is even remotely possible to have a better deal with the EU while no longer a member is surely a galaxy-size fail of miscalculation, hubris, or both. I realize that a big part of the EU-UK negotiations are actually a complex game of chicken, but the very fact this “type” of game was chosen instead of a more cooperative approach is in itself fairly ignorant.
Though it may be helpful in this context to define “intelligence” more precisely; is it “raw computing power” or “adeptness at achieving ones’ desired outcomes”...? While obviously related, those two things are most certainly not the same. Me personally being rather at the pragmatic/utilitarian end of the spectrum, think more in terms of the latter :)
The idea that you are familiar with all sides of the argument because you are aware of all arguments that were made publically seems ignorant.
It’s important to distinguish someone having different goals from someone with intelligence. Cummings believes that deregulation is the way to economic growth and the point of leaving the EU was to be able to deregulated and not be bound by EU legislation such as the privacy regulation.
If you want substantial positive change, then you need to decide for the unknown. Accepting dealing with the unknown was a foundation for a lot of human progress before the Great Stagnation and trying to regulate it out of existence had a cost.
It’s not a trivial analysis about whether or not that’s a good choice.
A lot of desired outcomes of political actors are not known to you. If you look at Dominic Cummings he managed to get a lot of political power for running the leave campaign.
Having a no deal result means that there’s more room for new policies to be created which might be desirable for Cummings et al.
Cummings might well have overplayed his hand and go down because he angered enough people and didn’t took the COVID-19 rules seriously enough.
Well—this chain could go on ad infinitum.. all I was trying to say is:
- I am really trying to understand why people voted for Brexit and want to find answers that do not boil down to “they were ignorant/dumb/racists”, however tempting it might be;
- The job of politicians is to serve the interests of the country they serve. If they have other reasons for pursuing certain policies they are being corrupt;
- If you are going to advocate voting for “Unknown” then you better have a very good idea of what you want instead, how you will bring it about and how it will materially help your constituents in ways that are tangible and can be measured;
I am not claiming to know everything the UK government and its people think, though if you follow your logic to only moderate extremes any discussion of complex policies is fundamentally pointless guesswork. That isn’t necessarily false, mind you… compared to the average person, I’d assess my own knowledge of Brexit somewhere above the median for a non-UK resident, and probably below someone who actually lives there everyday. On the other hand, it is easier for me to be dispassionate as I don’t have a dog in that race :)
You are making arguments that depend on the conclusion that you who what they think. As long as you understand that you don’t know what they think you can’t access their intelligence by looking at those decisions.
Allowing more economic growth through deregulation and more rational laws is an idea that was articulated and one that they are working on. It’s not very specific but specific 4-year plans don’t work that well.
Telling the public about how you get the more rational laws by hiring superforcasters and building those seeing rooms is more specific but not the level of argument that the public is easily going to digest.
Seems to me that the relation to your original question “why don’t we attribute historial events to the intelligence of their actors” is that by this logic, historians of the future might conclude that Dominic Cummings was retarded. (Assuming the records of his writing would be lost.) If this logic doesn’t work reliably now, it was probably not more reliable in the past.
If you go for the second one, then you’re essentially suggesting that sometimes we should explain a person’s success (failure) in terms of their innate tendency to succeed (fail). This sounds like a mysterious explanation. It’s like saying that sleeping medicine works because it has a dormitive potency.
I’m not saying the second definition is never useful, just not in this context.
I am not sure if I follow :) For starters, what is an “innate tendency to succeed”...? How is that even a thing? One might have a set of personal attributes that, given a bunch of challenges, might prove to be beneficial in increasing chances of getting what you want.. like charisma or being especially adept at detecting what people actually need, or when they are lying… but it would be a bit… irrational… to call that a innate tendency...? I mean I know there’s plenty of people who would do that (and in so doing, make into a reputation that then becomes feared and actually helps in being victorious when dealing with those who are aware of said reputation...) but it is still an irrational human construct.
Judging the intelligence of an actor based on his or her incidence of goal attainment seems to me a very pragmatic and unbiased way of ascribing overall success and understanding of the challenges in the situations being faced.
Also, in various places you seem to be moving back and forth between explaining events in terms of how smart a decision was, vs how smart a person was. These are different (though of course related).