Who is the new charismatic leader of prediction markets?
Not a direct answer to your question but:
One article I (easily) found on prediction markets mentions Bryan Caplan but has no mention of Hanson
There are plenty of startups promoting prediction markets: Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, etc
There was a recent article Why prediction markets aren’t popular, which gives plenty of good reasons but doesn’t mention any Hanson headwind
Scott Alexander does regular “Mantic Monday” posts on prediction markets
Who is the new charismatic leader of prediction markets?
Not a direct answer to your question but:
One article I (easily) found on prediction markets mentions Bryan Caplan but has no mention of Hanson
There are plenty of startups promoting prediction markets: Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, etc
There was a recent article Why prediction markets aren’t popular, which gives plenty of good reasons but doesn’t mention any Hanson headwind
Scott Alexander does regular “Mantic Monday” posts on prediction markets