Relevant forecasting questions that need to be refined to make them empirically falsifiable:
Will there be a strong push from current EA leaders/organizations to launch a new set of movements focused on individual high-priority causes?
If so...
… will those causes end up attracting more participation than they had under the EA banner?
… how many mainstream press articles will be written accusing EA of attempting a “rebrand” following scandal, accusations of harassement, etc?
… what will the life expectancy and membership size of these movements be under scenarios where such a “rebrand” gets a lot vs. only a little negative press coverage?
… will those cause-specific movements still exist 5 years later?
… will the EA movement shrink, grow, or stay about the same size relative to early 2023?
… will the EA movement refocus on meta-cause-prioritization?
… how much membership/participation overlap will there be between the original EA movement and new cause-specific movements?
Relevant forecasting questions that need to be refined to make them empirically falsifiable:
Will there be a strong push from current EA leaders/organizations to launch a new set of movements focused on individual high-priority causes?
If so...
… will those causes end up attracting more participation than they had under the EA banner?
… how many mainstream press articles will be written accusing EA of attempting a “rebrand” following scandal, accusations of harassement, etc?
… what will the life expectancy and membership size of these movements be under scenarios where such a “rebrand” gets a lot vs. only a little negative press coverage?
… will those cause-specific movements still exist 5 years later?
… will the EA movement shrink, grow, or stay about the same size relative to early 2023?
… will the EA movement refocus on meta-cause-prioritization?
… how much membership/participation overlap will there be between the original EA movement and new cause-specific movements?