For many such questions it’s indeed impossible to say. But I think there are also many, particularly the types of questions we often tend to ask as humans, where you have reasons to assume that the causal connections collectively point in one direction, even if you can’t measure it.
Let’s take the question whether improving air quality at someone’s home improves their recovery time after exercise. I’d say that this is very likely. But I’d also be a bit surprised if studies were able to show such an effect, because it’s probably small, and it’s probably hard to get precise measurements. But improving air quality is just an intervention that is generally “good”, and will have small but positive effects on all kinds of properties in our lives, and negative effects on much fewer properties. And if we accept that the effect on exercise recovery will not be zero, then I’d say there’s a chance of something like 90% that this effect will be beneficial rather than detrimental.
Similarly, with many interventions that are supposed to affect behavior of humans, one relevant question that is often answerable is whether the intervention increases or reduces friction. And if we expect no other causal effect that may dominate that one, then often the effect on friction may predict the overall outcome of that intervention.
For many such questions it’s indeed impossible to say. But I think there are also many, particularly the types of questions we often tend to ask as humans, where you have reasons to assume that the causal connections collectively point in one direction, even if you can’t measure it.
Let’s take the question whether improving air quality at someone’s home improves their recovery time after exercise. I’d say that this is very likely. But I’d also be a bit surprised if studies were able to show such an effect, because it’s probably small, and it’s probably hard to get precise measurements. But improving air quality is just an intervention that is generally “good”, and will have small but positive effects on all kinds of properties in our lives, and negative effects on much fewer properties. And if we accept that the effect on exercise recovery will not be zero, then I’d say there’s a chance of something like 90% that this effect will be beneficial rather than detrimental.
Similarly, with many interventions that are supposed to affect behavior of humans, one relevant question that is often answerable is whether the intervention increases or reduces friction. And if we expect no other causal effect that may dominate that one, then often the effect on friction may predict the overall outcome of that intervention.