I have become convinced that nanotech computers are likely way weaker and quite a bit more impractical than Drexler thought, and have also moved up my probability of Drexler just being plain wrong about the impact of nanotech, which if true suggests that the future value may have been overestimated.
The reason why I’m stating this now is because I got a link in discord that talks about why nanotech computers are overrated, and the reason I consider this important is if this generalizes to other nanotech concepts, this suggests that a lot of the future value may have been overestimated based on overestimating nanotech’s capabilities:
My estimates about future value don’t hinge on nanotech. I’m expecting immortal digital humans to be able to populate our lightcone without it. Why is nanotech particularly key to anything?
I have become convinced that nanotech computers are likely way weaker and quite a bit more impractical than Drexler thought, and have also moved up my probability of Drexler just being plain wrong about the impact of nanotech, which if true suggests that the future value may have been overestimated.
The reason why I’m stating this now is because I got a link in discord that talks about why nanotech computers are overrated, and the reason I consider this important is if this generalizes to other nanotech concepts, this suggests that a lot of the future value may have been overestimated based on overestimating nanotech’s capabilities:
https://muireall.space/pdf/considerations.pdf#page=17
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oqBJk2Ae3RBegtFfn/my-thoughts-on-nanotechnology-strategy-research-as-an-ea?commentId=WQn4nEH24oFuY7pZy
https://muireall.space/nanosystems/
My estimates about future value don’t hinge on nanotech. I’m expecting immortal digital humans to be able to populate our lightcone without it. Why is nanotech particularly key to anything?