Tetlock’s work does suggest that superforcasters can outperform people with domain expertise. The ability to synthesize existing information to make predictions about the future is not something that domain experts necessarily have in a way that makes them better than people who are skilled at forcasting.
Tetlock’s work does suggest that superforcasters can outperform people with domain expertise. The ability to synthesize existing information to make predictions about the future is not something that domain experts necessarily have in a way that makes them better than people who are skilled at forcasting.