The treasury bond market appears to be as close to such a market as we can expect to get. It shows interest rates for bonds maturing in 2027 with a yield about 0.20% higher than those maturing in 2017, and bonds maturing in 2037 have a lower interest rate than those maturing in 2027. That’s a clear prediction that apocalypse isn’t expected.
Markets for more than a few years into the future normally say that the best forecast is that conditions will stay the same and/or that existing trends will continue.
It shows interest rates for bonds maturing in 2027 with a yield about 0.20% higher than those maturing in 2017, and bonds maturing in 2037 have a lower interest rate than those maturing in 2027.
I’ll admit, I don’t understand this. Why do bonds which mature a decade later have lower interest rates? Shouldn’t they have higher interest rates because you’re taking on more risk? (The further out bonds mature, the higher the chance of an apocalypse or a huge runup in non-fixed instruments sometime during that period, right?)
The treasury bond market appears to be as close to such a market as we can expect to get. It shows interest rates for bonds maturing in 2027 with a yield about 0.20% higher than those maturing in 2017, and bonds maturing in 2037 have a lower interest rate than those maturing in 2027. That’s a clear prediction that apocalypse isn’t expected. Markets for more than a few years into the future normally say that the best forecast is that conditions will stay the same and/or that existing trends will continue.
I’ll admit, I don’t understand this. Why do bonds which mature a decade later have lower interest rates? Shouldn’t they have higher interest rates because you’re taking on more risk? (The further out bonds mature, the higher the chance of an apocalypse or a huge runup in non-fixed instruments sometime during that period, right?)