I agree with a lot of this post, and think it’s well written, thanks for overlay of Delta and Omicron numbers, I hadn’t thought too much about the lack of variant tracing in America and what that means for their reaction times.
I do agree with the gist, (though I don’t know your family, their precautions seem very reasonable) that depending on your situation, it’s safe to meet for the holidays. I disagree with your assessment of it being an increasingly large risk of an increasingly small harm, though maybe we just have different lengths of time that we’re looking at. I think that with the likelihood of an overwhelmed medical system climbing along with the chance of infection, I’d assess it as more of an increasingly large risk of an increasingly large harm.
I don’t have (and can’t have) these numbers in front of me, but I can imagine a boosted Bob in January, at the theoretical peak of Omicron, having a higher chance of [serious outcomes] than a vaccinated Vicki in November, just because once hospitalized, the treatment will be much poorer around January. Would be interested in people’s feelings/actual numbers on this.
I agree with a lot of this post, and think it’s well written, thanks for overlay of Delta and Omicron numbers, I hadn’t thought too much about the lack of variant tracing in America and what that means for their reaction times.
I do agree with the gist, (though I don’t know your family, their precautions seem very reasonable) that depending on your situation, it’s safe to meet for the holidays. I disagree with your assessment of it being an increasingly large risk of an increasingly small harm, though maybe we just have different lengths of time that we’re looking at. I think that with the likelihood of an overwhelmed medical system climbing along with the chance of infection, I’d assess it as more of an increasingly large risk of an increasingly large harm.
I don’t have (and can’t have) these numbers in front of me, but I can imagine a boosted Bob in January, at the theoretical peak of Omicron, having a higher chance of [serious outcomes] than a vaccinated Vicki in November, just because once hospitalized, the treatment will be much poorer around January. Would be interested in people’s feelings/actual numbers on this.