Hitting the 1% outcome would of course be the most awesome (or heck, even better, the 0.000001% jackpot), but the most realistic two possible choices are (effectively) more dead children or fewer dead children, in which case I’m gonna have to go with fewer dead children as being more awesome.
Thinking of that as the chosen course of action immediately made me feel a bit bitter or resentful—the feeling I get from, for instance, pondering living in a worse apartment so I can have more money to give to charity (a decision I was faced with a few months ago)--but a dead child is obviously less awesome than feelings of resentment. Ugh. This is starting to feel like a “the spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak” sort of thing.
EDIT: When I contemplate assuming that the morality case is settled and choosing to continue pursuing this 1% chance, the choice is between spending a few more years as a hopeless gambler and doing something with better odds. Honestly, I can’t pick which of these is more awesome. They both seem pretty sad to me (which is pretty ironic given the fact that I was feeling resentful over the idea of NOT continuing to be a gambler in the above paragraph). If it’s truly a toss-up, then theoretically I should go with quitting, since it is definitely the better alternative in the binary choice outlined in the previous paragraph.
Then again… if I do quit, I’m sure I would often wonder “what would have happened if...?” but surely guarding against regret isn’t a consideration to include in a rational decision-making process. I’m not haunted by a thought like this every time someone wins the lottery, for example. I feel like I could safely say “What would have happened? You would have wasted a few more years and then started the career you have now.” Even so, why can’t I let go? I guess that’s a textbook form of akrasia, but that really only gives it a label; not what I’m supposed to do about it. Does this seem like I should make a concerted effort to overcome my akrasia in this instance? (I know, I’m a total mess!!!)
“Would you prefer a 50% chance of gaining €10, one chance in a million off gaining €5 million, or a guaranteed €5? The standard position on Less Wrong is that the answer depends solely on the difference between cash and utility. If your utility scales less-than-linearly with money, you are risk averse and should choose the last option; if it scales more-than-linearly, you are risk-loving and should choose the second one. If we replaced €’s with utils in the example above, then it would simply be irrational to prefer one option over the others.”
It’s funny, because I was literally formulating this exact sort of scenario a few hours ago to describe my situation. Although I’m typically risk-averse, in this situation (perhaps because I value the field so highly), I’m willing to risk it. The idea that it’s not, in fact, illogical to do so (albeit immoral, for the reasons stated above, but if I were willing to go along with that conclusion, I’d basically end up living like Diogenes, and that’s just not going to happen), makes me willing to go ahead with it.
But please feel free to point out if and how my line of thinking has gone awry! :)
Hitting the 1% outcome would of course be the most awesome (or heck, even better, the 0.000001% jackpot), but the most realistic two possible choices are (effectively) more dead children or fewer dead children, in which case I’m gonna have to go with fewer dead children as being more awesome.
Thinking of that as the chosen course of action immediately made me feel a bit bitter or resentful—the feeling I get from, for instance, pondering living in a worse apartment so I can have more money to give to charity (a decision I was faced with a few months ago)--but a dead child is obviously less awesome than feelings of resentment. Ugh. This is starting to feel like a “the spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak” sort of thing.
EDIT: When I contemplate assuming that the morality case is settled and choosing to continue pursuing this 1% chance, the choice is between spending a few more years as a hopeless gambler and doing something with better odds. Honestly, I can’t pick which of these is more awesome. They both seem pretty sad to me (which is pretty ironic given the fact that I was feeling resentful over the idea of NOT continuing to be a gambler in the above paragraph). If it’s truly a toss-up, then theoretically I should go with quitting, since it is definitely the better alternative in the binary choice outlined in the previous paragraph.
Then again… if I do quit, I’m sure I would often wonder “what would have happened if...?” but surely guarding against regret isn’t a consideration to include in a rational decision-making process. I’m not haunted by a thought like this every time someone wins the lottery, for example. I feel like I could safely say “What would have happened? You would have wasted a few more years and then started the career you have now.” Even so, why can’t I let go? I guess that’s a textbook form of akrasia, but that really only gives it a label; not what I’m supposed to do about it. Does this seem like I should make a concerted effort to overcome my akrasia in this instance? (I know, I’m a total mess!!!)
Another EDIT!: It occurs to me that the ambivalence I’m suffering is actually due to this: http://lesswrong.com/lw/1cv/extreme_risks_when_not_to_use_expected_utility/
“Would you prefer a 50% chance of gaining €10, one chance in a million off gaining €5 million, or a guaranteed €5? The standard position on Less Wrong is that the answer depends solely on the difference between cash and utility. If your utility scales less-than-linearly with money, you are risk averse and should choose the last option; if it scales more-than-linearly, you are risk-loving and should choose the second one. If we replaced €’s with utils in the example above, then it would simply be irrational to prefer one option over the others.”
It’s funny, because I was literally formulating this exact sort of scenario a few hours ago to describe my situation. Although I’m typically risk-averse, in this situation (perhaps because I value the field so highly), I’m willing to risk it. The idea that it’s not, in fact, illogical to do so (albeit immoral, for the reasons stated above, but if I were willing to go along with that conclusion, I’d basically end up living like Diogenes, and that’s just not going to happen), makes me willing to go ahead with it.
But please feel free to point out if and how my line of thinking has gone awry! :)