It seems that in general, the less certain any counterfactual oracle is about its prediction, the more self-confirming it is. This is because the possible counterfactual worlds in which we have or acquire self-confirming beliefs regarding the prediction will have a high expected score
This is actually only true in certain cases, since in general many other counterfactual worlds could also have high expected scores. Specifically, it is true to the extent that the oracle is uncertain mostly about aspects of the world that would be affected by the prediction, and to the extent that self-confirming predictions lead to higher scores than any alternative.
Correction:
This is actually only true in certain cases, since in general many other counterfactual worlds could also have high expected scores. Specifically, it is true to the extent that the oracle is uncertain mostly about aspects of the world that would be affected by the prediction, and to the extent that self-confirming predictions lead to higher scores than any alternative.