Let me give an argument in favor of #4, doing what the others do, in the thermometer problem. Now we seem to have them behaving badly. I think in practice many people would in fact look at other thermometers too in making their guesses. So why aren’t they doing it? Two possibilities: they’re stupid; or they have a good reason to do it. An example good reason: some thermometers don’t read properly from a side angle, so although you think you can see and read all of them, you might be wrong. (This could be solved by #3, writing down the average of the cards, but that doesn’t work if everyone tries it since everyone is waiting for everyone else to go first.)
Only if we add a stipulation to this problem, that you are usually right when everyone else is wrong, would it be a good idea to buck the crowd. And even then there is the danger that the others may have some private information that supports their seemingly illogical actions.
Let me give an argument in favor of #4, doing what the others do, in the thermometer problem. Now we seem to have them behaving badly. I think in practice many people would in fact look at other thermometers too in making their guesses. So why aren’t they doing it? Two possibilities: they’re stupid; or they have a good reason to do it. An example good reason: some thermometers don’t read properly from a side angle, so although you think you can see and read all of them, you might be wrong. (This could be solved by #3, writing down the average of the cards, but that doesn’t work if everyone tries it since everyone is waiting for everyone else to go first.)
Only if we add a stipulation to this problem, that you are usually right when everyone else is wrong, would it be a good idea to buck the crowd. And even then there is the danger that the others may have some private information that supports their seemingly illogical actions.