AI 2027 is more useful for the arguments than the specific year but even if not as aggressive, prediction markets (or at least Manifold) predict 61% chance before 2030, 65% before 2031, 73% by 2033.
I, similarly, can see it happening slightly later than 2027-2028 because some specific issues take longer to solve than others but I see no reason to think a timeline beyond 2035, like yours, let alone 30 years is grounded in reality.
It also doesn’t help that when I look at your arguments and apply them to what would then seem to be very optimistic forecast in 2020 about progress in 2025 (or even Kokotajlo’s last forecast), those same arguments would have similarly rejected what has happened.
I wouldn’t take those markets too seriously. The resolution criteria arent clear and some years have fewer than 100 traders. Also I just moved some of them down a couple of percentage points.
AI 2027 is more useful for the arguments than the specific year but even if not as aggressive, prediction markets (or at least Manifold) predict 61% chance before 2030, 65% before 2031, 73% by 2033.
I, similarly, can see it happening slightly later than 2027-2028 because some specific issues take longer to solve than others but I see no reason to think a timeline beyond 2035, like yours, let alone 30 years is grounded in reality.
It also doesn’t help that when I look at your arguments and apply them to what would then seem to be very optimistic forecast in 2020 about progress in 2025 (or even Kokotajlo’s last forecast), those same arguments would have similarly rejected what has happened.
I wouldn’t take those markets too seriously. The resolution criteria arent clear and some years have fewer than 100 traders. Also I just moved some of them down a couple of percentage points.