One hope on the scale of decades is that strong germline engineering should offer an alternative vision to AGI. If the options are “make supergenius non-social alien” and “make many genius humans”, it ought to be clear that the latter is both much safer and gets most of the hypothetical benefits of the former.
Sorry if I sound overconfident. My actual considered belief is that AGI this decade is quite possible, and it is crazy overconfident in longer timeline predictions to not prepare seriously for that possibility.
Multigenerational stuff needs a way longer timeline. There’s a lot of space between three years and two generations.
You people are somewhat crazy overconfident about humanity knowing enough to make AGI this decade. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sTDfraZab47KiRMmT/views-on-when-agi-comes-and-on-strategy-to-reduce
One hope on the scale of decades is that strong germline engineering should offer an alternative vision to AGI. If the options are “make supergenius non-social alien” and “make many genius humans”, it ought to be clear that the latter is both much safer and gets most of the hypothetical benefits of the former.
Sorry if I sound overconfident. My actual considered belief is that AGI this decade is quite possible, and it is crazy overconfident in longer timeline predictions to not prepare seriously for that possibility.
Multigenerational stuff needs a way longer timeline. There’s a lot of space between three years and two generations.