If Ringmione is true, then I would assign over 50% probability to Dumbledore having noticed it and not called out Harry on it, in the same way that Dumbledore appeared to have noticed Harry in Azkaban and chose to not reveal it. I suspect Dumbledore is still just fighting the War, and believes that Harry is the key to defeating Voldemort and/or actually is Voldemort, and so Dumbledore did not reveal Ringmione because he believes Harry is trying to do the right thing and revealing Ringmione would cause a disastrous confrontation.
Given that all of Dumbledore’s subsequent actions, including some pretty drastic decisions, were made on the assumption that Voldemort had returned, based solely on the evidence of the Azkaban break-in, this seems unlikely.
He even told Bones that he had only given each cell a quick examination due to the sheer number he had to look through, which is an unnecessary detail in-universe, but out-of-universe explains to the reader how he could have overlooked Harry’s concealment.
ETA (this does mean “edited to add”, right?): If Dumbledore was already working on the assumption that Harry was involved in the breakout, he would not have been so surprised that retrieving him from Mary’s Place early would cause a paradox.
I have had felt for a while now that Dumbledore knows a lot more than he says. I’d put at least 55% chance on him knowing Harry was involved. What I don’t get is why he says nothing and goes along with it. Even for Harry freeing Bella is more than youthful high spirits.
What’s the strong evidence you have that lets you put it at at least 55% in spite of seeing no reason for Dumbledore to say nothing and go along with it?
It’s not completely any one thing, rather it’s a combination of many things
In Azkaban, Dumbledore walks through and checks every unit. Bella remarks afterward that it was Dumbledore doing the check. That means he was close enough for her to identify him. She was not in great shape at the time and had almost no magic left. He was the most powerful wizard in several centuries doing an active search. It seems very unlikely he didn’t notice everyone in the room. So with no tricks or deductions, I think there’s a chance Dumbledore finds out right here, and we see some hints that he did.
Returning from his search Dumbledore remarks that a prisoner had the same magic as a first year. As a Hogwarts prof, he knows very well how much magic a first year has.
Returning from the search Dumbledore changes tune from “Bella must not leave alive” to “let us not be the first to use deadly curses”. (Ostensibly because they didn’t kill Barry)
But if Dumbledore didn’t find Harry with his search, there are still various clues out there. And Dumbledore is the most powerful wizard in the world, in a world where power comes from solving mysteries, remembering details, and piecing together clues.
He knows that the individual in question didn’t kill Barry
Dumbledore checks and discovers that the intruder has a patronus that hides him from dementors in a way never before seen, a week after having watched Harry invent such a charm.
When the intruder dismisses the patronus, the intruder shows up to the dementors but Bella remains hidden. Hence there is a second way to hide. Dumbledore has given Harry the true cloak of invisibility.
The dementors later refuse to cooperate as if they have been threatened / commanded. Later in the story, Harry scares / commands a dementor in Dumbledore’s presence.
The intruder leaves Azkaban on a rocket powered broom!!!!
The broom in question is nonstandard with two seats. Later in the story Harry asks that he and all his friends be given multi seat brooms.
It turns out the rocket was transfigured out of ice to protect people breathing the smoke. (Note we don’t see Dumbledore get this detail on screen, but it’s fair to assume intelligence sharing given other scenes)
The breakout happened when Harry was out of Hogwarts.
Checking on Harry before the breakout would cause a paradox.
The night after the breakout, Harry has an emotional breakdown and flips out on Dumbledore over how terrible conditions are in Azkaban and how much of a jerk Dumbledore is for going there and doing nothing about it.
Dumbledore may act crazy, but he is not actually an idiot. From Quirrell “”Mr. Potter, one of the requisites for becoming a powerful wizard is an excellent memory. The key to a puzzle is often something you read twenty years ago in an old scroll, or a peculiar ring you saw on the finger of a man you met only once.” Again, Dumbledore is the most powerful wizard in the world; he doesn’t realistically fail to put the above together.
Its 55% and not higher because 1) I can’t see exactly why Dumbledore acts like he doesn’t know if he knows. 2) some odds that Dumbledore’s mind is clouded by the hand of god.
Dumbledore clearly suspects Harry might be behind Azkaban. In fact, he says as much. However he doesn’t “know”. He also suspects it might be Voldemort. (He probably hasn’t considered the possibilities that it was Harry and Voldemort working together.)
Dumbledore clearly suspects Harry might be behind Azkaban. In fact, he says as much. However he doesn’t “know”.
Dumbledore certainly doesn’t “say” that he knows. But as readers we are not shown his internal thoughts (in contrast to Harry, Hermione, Mcgonagall, and many others). Dumbledore’s thoughts have been deliberately made opqaue to readers. So we can’t definitively say that he knows or doesn’t know something. We can only infer which is more likely given other known facts.
I will note on a meta level though, that one possible reason not to show a character’s thoughts is that they are thinking and saying different things.
… possible motivations: long-distance time travel, wanting to remain not-an-enemy of Harry so he can still exercise some influence on him (note: right from the start, he’s the one who got the original HE IS COMING prophecy, right when a hypercompetent and extremely unexpected Harry Potter has arrived), wanting to figure out Harry’s motives first.
If Ringmione is true, then I would assign over 50% probability to Dumbledore having noticed it and not called out Harry on it, in the same way that Dumbledore appeared to have noticed Harry in Azkaban and chose to not reveal it. I suspect Dumbledore is still just fighting the War, and believes that Harry is the key to defeating Voldemort and/or actually is Voldemort, and so Dumbledore did not reveal Ringmione because he believes Harry is trying to do the right thing and revealing Ringmione would cause a disastrous confrontation.
Given that all of Dumbledore’s subsequent actions, including some pretty drastic decisions, were made on the assumption that Voldemort had returned, based solely on the evidence of the Azkaban break-in, this seems unlikely.
He even told Bones that he had only given each cell a quick examination due to the sheer number he had to look through, which is an unnecessary detail in-universe, but out-of-universe explains to the reader how he could have overlooked Harry’s concealment.
ETA (this does mean “edited to add”, right?): If Dumbledore was already working on the assumption that Harry was involved in the breakout, he would not have been so surprised that retrieving him from Mary’s Place early would cause a paradox.
I have had felt for a while now that Dumbledore knows a lot more than he says. I’d put at least 55% chance on him knowing Harry was involved. What I don’t get is why he says nothing and goes along with it. Even for Harry freeing Bella is more than youthful high spirits.
What’s the strong evidence you have that lets you put it at at least 55% in spite of seeing no reason for Dumbledore to say nothing and go along with it?
It’s not completely any one thing, rather it’s a combination of many things
In Azkaban, Dumbledore walks through and checks every unit. Bella remarks afterward that it was Dumbledore doing the check. That means he was close enough for her to identify him. She was not in great shape at the time and had almost no magic left. He was the most powerful wizard in several centuries doing an active search. It seems very unlikely he didn’t notice everyone in the room. So with no tricks or deductions, I think there’s a chance Dumbledore finds out right here, and we see some hints that he did.
Returning from his search Dumbledore remarks that a prisoner had the same magic as a first year. As a Hogwarts prof, he knows very well how much magic a first year has.
Returning from the search Dumbledore changes tune from “Bella must not leave alive” to “let us not be the first to use deadly curses”. (Ostensibly because they didn’t kill Barry)
But if Dumbledore didn’t find Harry with his search, there are still various clues out there. And Dumbledore is the most powerful wizard in the world, in a world where power comes from solving mysteries, remembering details, and piecing together clues.
He knows that the individual in question didn’t kill Barry
Dumbledore checks and discovers that the intruder has a patronus that hides him from dementors in a way never before seen, a week after having watched Harry invent such a charm.
When the intruder dismisses the patronus, the intruder shows up to the dementors but Bella remains hidden. Hence there is a second way to hide. Dumbledore has given Harry the true cloak of invisibility.
The dementors later refuse to cooperate as if they have been threatened / commanded. Later in the story, Harry scares / commands a dementor in Dumbledore’s presence.
The intruder leaves Azkaban on a rocket powered broom!!!!
The broom in question is nonstandard with two seats. Later in the story Harry asks that he and all his friends be given multi seat brooms.
It turns out the rocket was transfigured out of ice to protect people breathing the smoke. (Note we don’t see Dumbledore get this detail on screen, but it’s fair to assume intelligence sharing given other scenes)
The breakout happened when Harry was out of Hogwarts.
Checking on Harry before the breakout would cause a paradox.
The night after the breakout, Harry has an emotional breakdown and flips out on Dumbledore over how terrible conditions are in Azkaban and how much of a jerk Dumbledore is for going there and doing nothing about it.
Dumbledore may act crazy, but he is not actually an idiot. From Quirrell “”Mr. Potter, one of the requisites for becoming a powerful wizard is an excellent memory. The key to a puzzle is often something you read twenty years ago in an old scroll, or a peculiar ring you saw on the finger of a man you met only once.” Again, Dumbledore is the most powerful wizard in the world; he doesn’t realistically fail to put the above together.
Its 55% and not higher because 1) I can’t see exactly why Dumbledore acts like he doesn’t know if he knows. 2) some odds that Dumbledore’s mind is clouded by the hand of god.
Dumbledore clearly suspects Harry might be behind Azkaban. In fact, he says as much. However he doesn’t “know”. He also suspects it might be Voldemort. (He probably hasn’t considered the possibilities that it was Harry and Voldemort working together.)
Dumbledore certainly doesn’t “say” that he knows. But as readers we are not shown his internal thoughts (in contrast to Harry, Hermione, Mcgonagall, and many others). Dumbledore’s thoughts have been deliberately made opqaue to readers. So we can’t definitively say that he knows or doesn’t know something. We can only infer which is more likely given other known facts.
I will note on a meta level though, that one possible reason not to show a character’s thoughts is that they are thinking and saying different things.
...
Huh.
This… changes things.
That… is interesting. Very interesting.
… possible motivations: long-distance time travel, wanting to remain not-an-enemy of Harry so he can still exercise some influence on him (note: right from the start, he’s the one who got the original HE IS COMING prophecy, right when a hypercompetent and extremely unexpected Harry Potter has arrived), wanting to figure out Harry’s motives first.
Really?