This post expresses a tremendous amount of certainty, and the mere fact that debate was stifled cannot possibly demonstrate that the stifled side is actually correct.
Agreed on the second half, and disagreed on the first. Looking at the version history, the first version of this post clearly identifies its core claims as Roko’s beliefs and as the lab as being the “likely” origin, and those sections seem unchanged to today. I don’t think that counts as tremendous certainty. Later, Roko estimates the difference in likelihoods between two hypotheses as being 1000:1, but this is really not a tremendous amount either.
What do you wish he had said instead of what he actually said?
It was terrible, and likely backfired, but that isn’t “the crime of the century” being referenced, that would be the millions of dead people.
As I clarify in a comment elsewhere, I think we should treat them as being roughly equally terrible. If we would execute someone for accidentally killing millions of people, I think we should also execute them for destroying evidence that they accidentally killed millions of people, even if it turns out they didn’t do it.
My weak guess is Roko is operating under a similar strategy and not being clear enough on the distinction the two halves of “they likely did it and definitely covered it up”. Like, the post title begins with “Brute Force Manufactured Consensus”, which he feels strongly about in this case because of the size of the underlying problem, but I think it’s also pretty clear he is highly opposed to the methodology.
I don’t think that’s counts as tremendous certainty.
“Brute Force Manufactured consensus is hiding the Crime of the Century (emphasis mine). Although the post contains the statement “I believe” it doesn’t really express any other reservations, qualifiers, or uncertainty. It doesn’t present or consider any evidence for the alternatives.
For the love of Bayes! How many times do you have to rerun history for a naturally occurring virus to randomly appear outside the lab that’s studying it at the exact time they are studying it?
If it’s not a lot of evidence, then taking this post at face value, what would one conclude is the probability that covid came from a lab? edit: And if it’s not a lot of evidence, is it ok to accuse someone of mass murder with that amount of evidence?
I think we should treat them as being roughly equally terrible.
Well I think this is pretty wild, but that’s beside the point, as this isn’t what the post actually says:
prosecute what I believe is the crime of the century: a group of scientists who I believe committed the equivalent of a modern holocaust (either deliberately or accidentally) are going to get away with it. For those who are not aware, the death toll of Covid-19 is estimated at between 19 million and 35 million.
It would also be very strange for the post to have a bunch of content which is clearly supposed to be evidence that Covid was, in fact, a lab leak, and not just evidence that Peter Daszak tried to bury evidence if the point is simply that hiding evidence is bad.
It doesn’t present or consider any evidence for the alternatives.
So, in the current version of the post (which is edited from the original) Roko goes thru the basic estimate of “probability of this type of virus, location, and timing” given spillover and lab leak, and discounts other evidence in this paragraph:
These arguments are fairly robust to details about specific minor pieces of evidence or analyses. Whatever happens with all the minor arguments about enzymes and raccoon dogs and geospatial clustering, you still have to explain how the virus found its way to the place that got the first BSL-4 lab and the top Google hits for “Coronavirus China”, and did so in slightly less than 2 years after the lifting of the moratorium on gain-of-function research. And I don’t see how you can explain that other than that covid-19 escaped from WIV or a related facility in Wuhan.
I don’t think that counts as presenting it, but I do think that counts as considering it. I think it’s fine to question whether or not the arguments are robust to those details—I think they generally are and have not been impressed by any particular argument in favor of zoonosis that I’ve seen, mostly because I don’t think they properly estimate the probability under both hypotheses[1]--but I don’t think it’s the case that Roko is clearly making procedural errors here. [It seems to me like you’re arguing he’s making procedural errors instead of just combing to the wrong conclusion / using the wrong numbers, and so I’m focusing on that as the more important point.]
If it’s not a lot of evidence
This is what numbers are for. Is “1000-1” a lot? Is it tremendous? Who cares about fuzzy words when the number 1000 is right there. (I happen to think 1000-1 is a lot but is not tremendous.)
For example, the spatial clustering analysis suggests that the first major transmission event was at the market. But does their model explicitly consider both “transfer from animal to many humans at the market” and “transfer from infected lab worker to many humans at the market” and estimate probabilities for both? I don’t think so, and I think that means it’s not yet in a state where it can be plugged into the full Bayesian analysis. I think you need to multiply the probability that it was from the lab times the first lab-worker superspreader event happening at the market and compare that to the probability that it was from an animal times the first animal-human superspreader event happening at the market, and then you actually have some useful numbers to compare.
I would describe that as dismissing counter-evidence out of hand; it’s trivially easy to answer the question as stated, even if you don’t believe that particular story. In any event, this seems like arguing over semantics. I think that accusing someone of a being responsible for several million deaths requires quite strong evidence, and that a pretty key component of presenting strong evidence is seriously addressing counter-arguments and counter-evidence. None of Roko’s posts do that.
[It seems to me like you’re arguing he’s making procedural errors instead of just combing to the wrong conclusion / using the wrong numbers, and so I’m focusing on that as the more important point.
Sure. For example, he’s making the exact procedural error you describe in your footnote, by failing to consider how likely the genetic evidence is under the lab leak hypothesis, or if any other cities would look suspicious as the starting location of a pandemic, etc. He’s failing to apply consistent levels of skepticism to sources. But the biggest issue, in my mind, is still just not giving the question the level of consideration it requires. (I’m drafting an actual post so more detailed object-level arguments can go there when I’m done).
This is what numbers are for. Is “1000-1” a lot? Is it tremendous? Who cares about fuzzy words when the number 1000 is right there. (I happen to think 1000-1 is a lot but is not tremendous.)
I’m not sure what the point of arguing about the definition of “tremendous” is. If I had written “a lot” instead of “a tremendous amount” would anything substantial change?
Agreed on the second half, and disagreed on the first. Looking at the version history, the first version of this post clearly identifies its core claims as Roko’s beliefs and as the lab as being the “likely” origin, and those sections seem unchanged to today. I don’t think that counts as tremendous certainty. Later, Roko estimates the difference in likelihoods between two hypotheses as being 1000:1, but this is really not a tremendous amount either.
What do you wish he had said instead of what he actually said?
As I clarify in a comment elsewhere, I think we should treat them as being roughly equally terrible. If we would execute someone for accidentally killing millions of people, I think we should also execute them for destroying evidence that they accidentally killed millions of people, even if it turns out they didn’t do it.
My weak guess is Roko is operating under a similar strategy and not being clear enough on the distinction the two halves of “they likely did it and definitely covered it up”. Like, the post title begins with “Brute Force Manufactured Consensus”, which he feels strongly about in this case because of the size of the underlying problem, but I think it’s also pretty clear he is highly opposed to the methodology.
“Brute Force Manufactured consensus is hiding the Crime of the Century (emphasis mine). Although the post contains the statement “I believe” it doesn’t really express any other reservations, qualifiers, or uncertainty. It doesn’t present or consider any evidence for the alternatives.
It certainly seems like it’s supposed to a lot:
If it’s not a lot of evidence, then taking this post at face value, what would one conclude is the probability that covid came from a lab? edit: And if it’s not a lot of evidence, is it ok to accuse someone of mass murder with that amount of evidence?
Well I think this is pretty wild, but that’s beside the point, as this isn’t what the post actually says:
It would also be very strange for the post to have a bunch of content which is clearly supposed to be evidence that Covid was, in fact, a lab leak, and not just evidence that Peter Daszak tried to bury evidence if the point is simply that hiding evidence is bad.
So, in the current version of the post (which is edited from the original) Roko goes thru the basic estimate of “probability of this type of virus, location, and timing” given spillover and lab leak, and discounts other evidence in this paragraph:
I don’t think that counts as presenting it, but I do think that counts as considering it. I think it’s fine to question whether or not the arguments are robust to those details—I think they generally are and have not been impressed by any particular argument in favor of zoonosis that I’ve seen, mostly because I don’t think they properly estimate the probability under both hypotheses[1]--but I don’t think it’s the case that Roko is clearly making procedural errors here. [It seems to me like you’re arguing he’s making procedural errors instead of just combing to the wrong conclusion / using the wrong numbers, and so I’m focusing on that as the more important point.]
This is what numbers are for. Is “1000-1” a lot? Is it tremendous? Who cares about fuzzy words when the number 1000 is right there. (I happen to think 1000-1 is a lot but is not tremendous.)
For example, the spatial clustering analysis suggests that the first major transmission event was at the market. But does their model explicitly consider both “transfer from animal to many humans at the market” and “transfer from infected lab worker to many humans at the market” and estimate probabilities for both? I don’t think so, and I think that means it’s not yet in a state where it can be plugged into the full Bayesian analysis. I think you need to multiply the probability that it was from the lab times the first lab-worker superspreader event happening at the market and compare that to the probability that it was from an animal times the first animal-human superspreader event happening at the market, and then you actually have some useful numbers to compare.
I would describe that as dismissing counter-evidence out of hand; it’s trivially easy to answer the question as stated, even if you don’t believe that particular story. In any event, this seems like arguing over semantics. I think that accusing someone of a being responsible for several million deaths requires quite strong evidence, and that a pretty key component of presenting strong evidence is seriously addressing counter-arguments and counter-evidence. None of Roko’s posts do that.
Sure. For example, he’s making the exact procedural error you describe in your footnote, by failing to consider how likely the genetic evidence is under the lab leak hypothesis, or if any other cities would look suspicious as the starting location of a pandemic, etc. He’s failing to apply consistent levels of skepticism to sources. But the biggest issue, in my mind, is still just not giving the question the level of consideration it requires. (I’m drafting an actual post so more detailed object-level arguments can go there when I’m done).
I’m not sure what the point of arguing about the definition of “tremendous” is. If I had written “a lot” instead of “a tremendous amount” would anything substantial change?