Maybe more practical than moral, but nations around the world have put sanctions on Russia. This would theoretically hamper Russia’s economic growth relative to other nations over time. (Although the Russian kleptocracy was already doing that to some degree.) Are you sure it’s wise to try to build a global startup in such a country?
Russia is in a state of demographic decline with an aging population due to insufficient birth rates in recent decades. Labor shortages were projected as early as next year. Each worker will have to support more and more retirees.
Russia’s strategy in war (if you can call it that) seems to be to throw more young men into the meat grinder. Because the soldiers are also working-age men, this will exacerbate the problem, not just due to the direct warfighter casualties, but due to the resulting brain drain and human capital flight that causes as the best and brightest rightly fear conscription and flee. This is not speculation; it is already happening. How much longer will you have the option of leaving? Borders can be closed to emigrants, especially in times of war. The risk of that seems high, so you’d probably keep your options more open by leaving now. It’s probably easier to get back in than out.
Probably the only feasible way of fixing the demography is mass immigration. But who would want to move into a sanctioned pariah state that might conscript you for war? This is probably not happening any time soon.
On the question of repute, consider TikTok, a social media app with overwhelming popularity in the younger generation. Despite this, the United States, although famous for granting broad freedom to do things, is seriously considering banning it, due to the perceived influence of the Chinese Communist Party. It’s already banned in India and in Montana (although not yet enforced pending litigation), and much more widely banned on government devices, not just in the U.S., but in Australia, Canada, and much of Europe. Being based in China has been bad for its business, due to China’s poor reputation.
Similarly, Kaspersky Lab (Лаборатория Касперского), though well-regarded internationally for years, has been facing similar government bans due to allegations of ties with the Russian Federal Security Service (since 2017 in the U.S., at least). Any tech startup in Russia potentially faces similar hurdles for international adoption.
Morally, it’s tricky, but there is a sense in which anyone living in Russia and at least paying taxes is complicit in the war and human rights abuses. However, everyone has to live somewhere and touching the international economy at all is going to be connected to some negative consequences somewhere. The global economy has a lot of abuses. I don’t think this justifies becoming a hermit, which has a different set of moral problems, but one can do relatively better or worse here.
It’s not clear to me that minimizing contacts with friends and family in Russia would be a net good. Breaking up family seems bad to me on its face. You seem concerned they might be a bad influence. But influence goes both ways; you can be a positive influence on them. Still, those you interact with most will influence your thinking. Choose friends wisely.
Hah! I’ll not dispute that some circumstances might be even worse (nor do I claim that Russia has literally zero recent immigrants), but are there enough of them to compensate for Russia’s population loss? I think not, but maybe you have data?
Probably the only feasible way of fixing the demography is mass immigration.
Banning birth control would be another feasible way in my estimation for any government that can survive the resentment caused by the ban—and the Kremlin probably could survive it.
I’ve been wondering for a while if China will try that. I would not have guessed Russia would, but maybe I’m not that informed? Have the Russians actually suggested it?
It still takes decades for any new babies to grow up to working age. That might not be soon enough to save Russia. The right time to try something like that was probably 20 years ago. Immigration would be faster, in theory. Seems to be working for Canada.
My guess is that banning birth control is not in the Overton window in Russia.
You make a good point. I think however that these demographic factors aren’t as important to a country’s long-term fate as many recent commentators say it is.
One of the reasons I think demographic factors aren’t as important over the long term as some say they are is that an estimated 50% of the population of Europe died (from the plague) from 1346 to 1353 and yet not long afterwards Europe started pulling ahead the rest of the world, with Gutenberg inventing movable type in 1450 and the Renaissance having spread throughout Europe by 1500. Admittedly the Renaissance’s beginning (in Italy) predate the plague, but the point is that the loss of about 50% of the population did not prevent those beginnings from spreading to the rest of the Europe and did not prevent Europe from becoming the most influential region of the world (with the European discovery of the New World in 1492, with the European Magellan making the first circumnavigation of the globe between 1519 and 1522 and with the scientific and political advances, e.g., the empirical method and liberalism, of the European Renaissance having tremendous global influence to the present day).
And even if I were not able to cite the example I just cited, the track record of the class of experts (geographers, political scientists) who maintain that demographics is national destiny is that they are often wrong. Less Wrong does well in general, but could do better at resisting false information and information of unknown truth value that gets repeated over and over on by the internet.
I don’t feel like the results of the Black Death situation generalizes to Russia’s current demographics. Medieval Europe was near its carrying capacity given the technology of the day. The plague injected some slack into the system to allow for progress. That’s really not the situation in Russia, is it? Food isn’t the limiting factor.
Furthermore, Russia’s population is aging on net, and the war is exacerbating the problem.
On the contrary compared to Medieval Europe, this would tend to remove slack from the system as the working age Russians have to spend more of their resources to support the elderly while at the same time they’re burning resources to fight the war and growing less than they could otherwise due to sanctions.
Did the Black Death have that effect? I couldn’t find any information on age demographics during that period, but on priors, I’d expect disease to affect the old as well, if not more, in most cases. (What I did find suggested that the poor were disproportionately affected due to their living conditions.)
Maybe more practical than moral, but nations around the world have put sanctions on Russia. This would theoretically hamper Russia’s economic growth relative to other nations over time. (Although the Russian kleptocracy was already doing that to some degree.) Are you sure it’s wise to try to build a global startup in such a country?
Russia is in a state of demographic decline with an aging population due to insufficient birth rates in recent decades. Labor shortages were projected as early as next year. Each worker will have to support more and more retirees.
Russia’s strategy in war (if you can call it that) seems to be to throw more young men into the meat grinder. Because the soldiers are also working-age men, this will exacerbate the problem, not just due to the direct warfighter casualties, but due to the resulting brain drain and human capital flight that causes as the best and brightest rightly fear conscription and flee. This is not speculation; it is already happening. How much longer will you have the option of leaving? Borders can be closed to emigrants, especially in times of war. The risk of that seems high, so you’d probably keep your options more open by leaving now. It’s probably easier to get back in than out.
Probably the only feasible way of fixing the demography is mass immigration. But who would want to move into a sanctioned pariah state that might conscript you for war? This is probably not happening any time soon.
On the question of repute, consider TikTok, a social media app with overwhelming popularity in the younger generation. Despite this, the United States, although famous for granting broad freedom to do things, is seriously considering banning it, due to the perceived influence of the Chinese Communist Party. It’s already banned in India and in Montana (although not yet enforced pending litigation), and much more widely banned on government devices, not just in the U.S., but in Australia, Canada, and much of Europe. Being based in China has been bad for its business, due to China’s poor reputation.
Similarly, Kaspersky Lab (Лаборатория Касперского), though well-regarded internationally for years, has been facing similar government bans due to allegations of ties with the Russian Federal Security Service (since 2017 in the U.S., at least). Any tech startup in Russia potentially faces similar hurdles for international adoption.
Morally, it’s tricky, but there is a sense in which anyone living in Russia and at least paying taxes is complicit in the war and human rights abuses. However, everyone has to live somewhere and touching the international economy at all is going to be connected to some negative consequences somewhere. The global economy has a lot of abuses. I don’t think this justifies becoming a hermit, which has a different set of moral problems, but one can do relatively better or worse here.
It’s not clear to me that minimizing contacts with friends and family in Russia would be a net good. Breaking up family seems bad to me on its face. You seem concerned they might be a bad influence. But influence goes both ways; you can be a positive influence on them. Still, those you interact with most will influence your thinking. Choose friends wisely.
You might be surprised at how desperate some people are.
Hah! I’ll not dispute that some circumstances might be even worse (nor do I claim that Russia has literally zero recent immigrants), but are there enough of them to compensate for Russia’s population loss? I think not, but maybe you have data?
I don’t, no. I doubt it, but suspect that’s not due to a lack of people willing to immigrate to Russia.
Banning birth control would be another feasible way in my estimation for any government that can survive the resentment caused by the ban—and the Kremlin probably could survive it.
I’ve been wondering for a while if China will try that. I would not have guessed Russia would, but maybe I’m not that informed? Have the Russians actually suggested it?
It still takes decades for any new babies to grow up to working age. That might not be soon enough to save Russia. The right time to try something like that was probably 20 years ago. Immigration would be faster, in theory. Seems to be working for Canada.
My guess is that banning birth control is not in the Overton window in Russia.
You make a good point. I think however that these demographic factors aren’t as important to a country’s long-term fate as many recent commentators say it is.
One of the reasons I think demographic factors aren’t as important over the long term as some say they are is that an estimated 50% of the population of Europe died (from the plague) from 1346 to 1353 and yet not long afterwards Europe started pulling ahead the rest of the world, with Gutenberg inventing movable type in 1450 and the Renaissance having spread throughout Europe by 1500. Admittedly the Renaissance’s beginning (in Italy) predate the plague, but the point is that the loss of about 50% of the population did not prevent those beginnings from spreading to the rest of the Europe and did not prevent Europe from becoming the most influential region of the world (with the European discovery of the New World in 1492, with the European Magellan making the first circumnavigation of the globe between 1519 and 1522 and with the scientific and political advances, e.g., the empirical method and liberalism, of the European Renaissance having tremendous global influence to the present day).
And even if I were not able to cite the example I just cited, the track record of the class of experts (geographers, political scientists) who maintain that demographics is national destiny is that they are often wrong. Less Wrong does well in general, but could do better at resisting false information and information of unknown truth value that gets repeated over and over on by the internet.
I don’t feel like the results of the Black Death situation generalizes to Russia’s current demographics. Medieval Europe was near its carrying capacity given the technology of the day. The plague injected some slack into the system to allow for progress. That’s really not the situation in Russia, is it? Food isn’t the limiting factor.
Furthermore, Russia’s population is aging on net, and the war is exacerbating the problem. On the contrary compared to Medieval Europe, this would tend to remove slack from the system as the working age Russians have to spend more of their resources to support the elderly while at the same time they’re burning resources to fight the war and growing less than they could otherwise due to sanctions.
Did the Black Death have that effect? I couldn’t find any information on age demographics during that period, but on priors, I’d expect disease to affect the old as well, if not more, in most cases. (What I did find suggested that the poor were disproportionately affected due to their living conditions.)