I’ve been researching this topic in my spare time and would be happy to help. Do you have time to clarify a few points? Here are some thoughts and questions that came up as I reviewed your post:
Livestock vs. Wild Birds The distinction between livestock and wild birds is significant. Livestock are in much closer contact with humans and are biologically closer as well. How granular of an analysis are you interested in here?
US-specific H5N1 Trends It’s peculiar that H5N1 seems so prevalent in the US. Could this be due to measurement bias, or does the US simply have more factory farming? How interested are you in exploring the reasons behind this trend?
Citations and Depth While most points aren’t cited (which is fine), it might be valuable to compile both a list of key aspects and resources for further reading. Are you looking for a more polished, thoroughly cited document?
Biological Factors of Severity Binding to human receptors is just one factor controlling the severity and infectiousness of a virus. Would you like a deeper dive into the biology of respiratory infections and what makes them dangerous?
Tamiflu and Xofluza Wikipedia notes that Tamiflu has limited evidence of being worth the side effects. Are you interested in a detailed evaluation of its effectiveness? Similarly, how interested are you in assessing the likelihood of shortages and efficacy of Tamiflu/Xofluza during an H5N1 pandemic?
Over-the-counter Tests Is the issue a lack of over-the-counter tests specifically for H5N1, or for flu in general? General flu PCR testing is likely available—should we investigate this?
Trajectory of Illness For past H5N1 cases, is there a treatable “window of opportunity” before the infection becomes severe? How critical is it to determine whether mild cases might escalate and require aggressive intervention?
Historical Epidemics I could pull together a list of relevant modern epidemics (human-to-human airborne transmission without an animal vector). Are there any specific criteria you’d like to prioritize?
Cross Immunity While cross immunity seems important, determining decision-relevant information may be challenging. Would you like a summary of existing knowledge or only actionable insights?
Respiratory Infection Dynamics Epidemiologists suggest that respiratory infections are deadlier lower in the lungs but more infectious higher in the system. Is this a fundamental tradeoff? Would a “both-and” virus be possible? What evolutionary advantages might viruses have in infecting the lower lungs?
Government Stockpiles and Interventions What stockpiles of H5N1 vaccines exist? What options are available for increasing testing and vaccination of livestock? How are governments incentivizing medication, vaccine, and PPE production?
Political Considerations Should we examine how a Trump presidency or similar political scenarios might influence the interaction between local and federal health agencies?
Species-to-Species Spread The rapid spread of H5N1 to multiple bird and mammal species raises the question of whether humans will inevitably be affected. Is this worth exploring in-depth?
Mortality and Long-term Effects What demographics do other flu strains tend to affect most? Are there long-term side effects comparable to “long COVID”?
Mutation and Vaccine Efficacy How quickly do flu strains, especially H5N1, tend to mutate? What implications does this have for vaccine efficacy and cross-reactivity? How much asymptomatic spread occurs with flu, and how long does it remain airborne?
No Deaths Yet How should we update based on the fact that, contrary to past occurrences of H5N1 that had a ~50% CFR, none of the 58 confirmed cases have died?
Finally, I’d be interested to hear which of these questions or areas you find most compelling. Are there other questions or directions you’d like to explore? This will help me prioritize my efforts.
Epidemic Scares That Did Not Pan Out
1976 - Legionnaires’ Disease: Initially alarming but identified as a bacterial infection treatable with antibiotics. (Not relevant: bacterial)
2001 - Anthrax Attacks: Bioterrorism-related bacterial outbreak causing fear but limited deaths. (Not relevant: bacterial)
2005 - Avian Flu (H5N1): No confirmed US human cases despite global fears. (Relevant)
2014 - Ebola: Strict public health measures limited US cases to three. (Relevant)
2016 - Zika Virus: Local transmission limited to parts of Florida and Texas. (Not relevant: mosquito vector)
I love this detailed list. I’ve responded in-line to every one, but feel free to ask more questions, here or over email.
Livestock vs. Wild Birds The distinction between livestock and wild birds is significant. Livestock are in much closer contact with humans and are biologically closer as well. How granular of an analysis are you interested in here?
I care about wild birds to the extent they’re spreading disease to livestock or serve as reservoirs.
I’ve also heard a wide number of mammals have been infected. I care about this to the extent it affects humans and livestock. E.g. does this suggest it’s airborne after all, or say something about the mutation rate?
US-specific H5N1 Trends It’s peculiar that H5N1 seems so prevalent in the US. Could this be due to measurement bias, or does the US simply have more factory farming? How interested are you in exploring the reasons behind this trend?
I’m interested in quantifying the quality of US surveillance, but otherwise deprioritize this.
Citations and Depth While most points aren’t cited (which is fine), it might be valuable to compile both a list of key aspects and resources for further reading. Are you looking for a more polished, thoroughly cited document?
Citations are important to the extent they let people check and build on your work. But if it’s a widely known consensus such that it’s easy to look up but complicated to cite, it’s not important to add a citation. E.g. my fact about RNA segments is very easy to check but would have been annoying to find a citation for because I learned it 20 years ago.
Overall citations for the current state of things (e.g. how many human infections of unknown providence) are more important than citations for basic science.
Biological Factors of Severity Binding to human receptors is just one factor controlling the severity and infectiousness of a virus. Would you like a deeper dive into the biology of respiratory infections and what makes them dangerous?
Low priority. Pass on resources if you find them but don’t bother with synthesis.
Tamiflu and Xofluza Wikipedia notes that Tamiflu has limited evidence of being worth the side effects. Are you interested in a detailed evaluation of its effectiveness? Similarly, how interested are you in assessing the likelihood of shortages and efficacy of Tamiflu/Xofluza during an H5N1 pandemic?
I’m very interested in tamiflu’s efficacy. Some specific important questions:
is tamiflu more effective when taken very early? when did the people in the studies that found low efficacy take tamiflu? My understanding is it is effective for prophylactic use, which suggests earlier is better.
how does the math change if the flu is more dangerous or virulent?
Not interested in assessing likelihood of shortages.
Over-the-counter Tests Is the issue a lack of over-the-counter tests specifically for H5N1, or for flu in general? General flu PCR testing is likely available—should we investigate this?
My assumption is the European OTC tests will catch H5N1, but if that’s wrong I’d like to know.
I don’t care much about non-home tests, except I am interested in the national flu surveillance program and how much we can trust it.
Trajectory of Illness For past H5N1 cases, is there a treatable “window of opportunity” before the infection becomes severe? How critical is it to determine whether mild cases might escalate and require aggressive intervention?
Very interested in this.
Historical Epidemics I could pull together a list of relevant modern epidemics (human-to-human airborne transmission without an animal vector). Are there any specific criteria you’d like to prioritize?
The reference class is “things that got at least as far as H5N1 did this year”- widespread in livestock and with some humans infected.
Cross Immunity While cross immunity seems important, determining decision-relevant information may be challenging. Would you like a summary of existing knowledge or only actionable insights?
Medium priority for a summary of existing knowledge, bonus points for a quantitative model even if it’s low confidence.
Respiratory Infection Dynamics Epidemiologists suggest that respiratory infections are deadlier lower in the lungs but more infectious higher in the system. Is this a fundamental tradeoff? Would a “both-and” virus be possible? What evolutionary advantages might viruses have in infecting the lower lungs?
If you happen to stumble on relevant information I’d like to hear it, but I don’t want synthesis.
Government Stockpiles and Interventions What stockpiles of H5N1 vaccines exist? What options are available for increasing testing and vaccination of livestock? How are governments incentivizing medication, vaccine, and PPE production?
Yes to stockpiles, yes to shallow investigation of options for livestock.
Political Considerations Should we examine how a Trump presidency or similar political scenarios might influence the interaction between local and federal health agencies?
No.
Species-to-Species Spread The rapid spread of H5N1 to multiple bird and mammal species raises the question of whether humans will inevitably be affected. Is this worth exploring in-depth?
Yes.
Mortality and Long-term Effects What demographics do other flu strains tend to affect most? Are there long-term side effects comparable to “long COVID”?
We know who normally gets hit hardest by diseases, I’m only interested in deviation from that.
No to “long flu”, because I am already convinced it exists but the data on it is bad.
Mutation and Vaccine Efficacy How quickly do flu strains, especially H5N1, tend to mutate? What implications does this have for vaccine efficacy and cross-reactivity? How much asymptomatic spread occurs with flu, and how long does it remain airborne?
Yes to mutation rate, especially if you can quantify what’s needed to allow human-to-human transfer.
Yes to general flu knowledge like asymptomatic period and time airborne.
No Deaths Yet How should we update based on the fact that, contrary to past occurrences of H5N1 that had a ~50% CFR, none of the 58 confirmed cases have died?
This paper says there has been one death from the current clade. I’m very interested in knowing if that’s correct. It also says tamiflu was found to reduce mortality in earlier, more deadly forms of H5N1.
That’s a lot, so here are my top three priorities: vaccine efficacy (wide confidence intervals are fine), treatment efficacy, and likelihood of human-to-human transmission.
Great, that’s clarifying. I will start with Tamiflu/Xofluza efficacy as it’s important, and I think it will be most tractable via a straightforward lit review.
I’ve been researching this topic in my spare time and would be happy to help. Do you have time to clarify a few points? Here are some thoughts and questions that came up as I reviewed your post:
Livestock vs. Wild Birds
The distinction between livestock and wild birds is significant. Livestock are in much closer contact with humans and are biologically closer as well. How granular of an analysis are you interested in here?
US-specific H5N1 Trends
It’s peculiar that H5N1 seems so prevalent in the US. Could this be due to measurement bias, or does the US simply have more factory farming? How interested are you in exploring the reasons behind this trend?
Citations and Depth
While most points aren’t cited (which is fine), it might be valuable to compile both a list of key aspects and resources for further reading. Are you looking for a more polished, thoroughly cited document?
Biological Factors of Severity
Binding to human receptors is just one factor controlling the severity and infectiousness of a virus. Would you like a deeper dive into the biology of respiratory infections and what makes them dangerous?
Tamiflu and Xofluza
Wikipedia notes that Tamiflu has limited evidence of being worth the side effects. Are you interested in a detailed evaluation of its effectiveness? Similarly, how interested are you in assessing the likelihood of shortages and efficacy of Tamiflu/Xofluza during an H5N1 pandemic?
Over-the-counter Tests
Is the issue a lack of over-the-counter tests specifically for H5N1, or for flu in general? General flu PCR testing is likely available—should we investigate this?
Trajectory of Illness
For past H5N1 cases, is there a treatable “window of opportunity” before the infection becomes severe? How critical is it to determine whether mild cases might escalate and require aggressive intervention?
Historical Epidemics
I could pull together a list of relevant modern epidemics (human-to-human airborne transmission without an animal vector). Are there any specific criteria you’d like to prioritize?
Cross Immunity
While cross immunity seems important, determining decision-relevant information may be challenging. Would you like a summary of existing knowledge or only actionable insights?
Respiratory Infection Dynamics
Epidemiologists suggest that respiratory infections are deadlier lower in the lungs but more infectious higher in the system. Is this a fundamental tradeoff? Would a “both-and” virus be possible? What evolutionary advantages might viruses have in infecting the lower lungs?
Government Stockpiles and Interventions
What stockpiles of H5N1 vaccines exist? What options are available for increasing testing and vaccination of livestock? How are governments incentivizing medication, vaccine, and PPE production?
Political Considerations
Should we examine how a Trump presidency or similar political scenarios might influence the interaction between local and federal health agencies?
Species-to-Species Spread
The rapid spread of H5N1 to multiple bird and mammal species raises the question of whether humans will inevitably be affected. Is this worth exploring in-depth?
Mortality and Long-term Effects
What demographics do other flu strains tend to affect most? Are there long-term side effects comparable to “long COVID”?
Mutation and Vaccine Efficacy
How quickly do flu strains, especially H5N1, tend to mutate? What implications does this have for vaccine efficacy and cross-reactivity? How much asymptomatic spread occurs with flu, and how long does it remain airborne?
No Deaths Yet
How should we update based on the fact that, contrary to past occurrences of H5N1 that had a ~50% CFR, none of the 58 confirmed cases have died?
Finally, I’d be interested to hear which of these questions or areas you find most compelling. Are there other questions or directions you’d like to explore? This will help me prioritize my efforts.
Epidemic Scares That Did Not Pan Out
1976 - Legionnaires’ Disease: Initially alarming but identified as a bacterial infection treatable with antibiotics. (Not relevant: bacterial)
2001 - Anthrax Attacks: Bioterrorism-related bacterial outbreak causing fear but limited deaths. (Not relevant: bacterial)
2005 - Avian Flu (H5N1): No confirmed US human cases despite global fears. (Relevant)
2014 - Ebola: Strict public health measures limited US cases to three. (Relevant)
2016 - Zika Virus: Local transmission limited to parts of Florida and Texas. (Not relevant: mosquito vector)
I love this detailed list. I’ve responded in-line to every one, but feel free to ask more questions, here or over email.
I care about wild birds to the extent they’re spreading disease to livestock or serve as reservoirs.
I’ve also heard a wide number of mammals have been infected. I care about this to the extent it affects humans and livestock. E.g. does this suggest it’s airborne after all, or say something about the mutation rate?
I’m interested in quantifying the quality of US surveillance, but otherwise deprioritize this.
Citations are important to the extent they let people check and build on your work. But if it’s a widely known consensus such that it’s easy to look up but complicated to cite, it’s not important to add a citation. E.g. my fact about RNA segments is very easy to check but would have been annoying to find a citation for because I learned it 20 years ago.
Overall citations for the current state of things (e.g. how many human infections of unknown providence) are more important than citations for basic science.
Low priority. Pass on resources if you find them but don’t bother with synthesis.
I’m very interested in tamiflu’s efficacy. Some specific important questions:
is tamiflu more effective when taken very early? when did the people in the studies that found low efficacy take tamiflu? My understanding is it is effective for prophylactic use, which suggests earlier is better.
how does the math change if the flu is more dangerous or virulent?
Not interested in assessing likelihood of shortages.
My assumption is the European OTC tests will catch H5N1, but if that’s wrong I’d like to know.
I don’t care much about non-home tests, except I am interested in the national flu surveillance program and how much we can trust it.
Very interested in this.
The reference class is “things that got at least as far as H5N1 did this year”- widespread in livestock and with some humans infected.
Medium priority for a summary of existing knowledge, bonus points for a quantitative model even if it’s low confidence.
If you happen to stumble on relevant information I’d like to hear it, but I don’t want synthesis.
Yes to stockpiles, yes to shallow investigation of options for livestock.
No.
Yes.
We know who normally gets hit hardest by diseases, I’m only interested in deviation from that.
No to “long flu”, because I am already convinced it exists but the data on it is bad.
Yes to mutation rate, especially if you can quantify what’s needed to allow human-to-human transfer.
Yes to general flu knowledge like asymptomatic period and time airborne.
This paper says there has been one death from the current clade. I’m very interested in knowing if that’s correct. It also says tamiflu was found to reduce mortality in earlier, more deadly forms of H5N1.
That’s a lot, so here are my top three priorities: vaccine efficacy (wide confidence intervals are fine), treatment efficacy, and likelihood of human-to-human transmission.
Great, that’s clarifying. I will start with Tamiflu/Xofluza efficacy as it’s important, and I think it will be most tractable via a straightforward lit review.