Well what’s the appropriate way to act in the face of the fact that I AM sure I am right? I’ve been offering public bets of the nickel of some high-karma person versus my $100, which seems like a fair and attractive bet for anyone who doubts my credibility and ability to reason about the things I am talking about.
I will happily bet anyone with significant karma that Yudkowsky will find my work on the ethicophysics valuable a year from now, at the odds given above.
I have around 2K karma and will take that bet at those odds, for up to 1000 dollars on my side.
Resolution criteria are to ask EY about his views on this sequence as of December 1st 2024, literally “which of Zac or MadHatter won this bet”, and resolves no payment if he declined to respond or does not explicitly rule for any other reason.
I’m happy to pay my loss by eg Venmo, and would request winnings as a receipt for your donation to GiveWell’s all-grants fund.
Hey @MadHatter—Eliezer confirms that I’ve won our bet.
I ask that you donate my winnings to GiveWell’s All Grants fund, here, via credit card or ACH (preferred due to lower fees). Please check the box for “I would like to dedicate this donation to someone” and include zac@zhd.dev as the notification email address so that I can confirm here that you’ve done so.
We’ve been in touch, and agreed that MatHatter will make the donation by end of February. I’ll post a final update in this thread when I get the confirmation from GiveWell.
Well what’s the appropriate way to act in the face of the fact that I AM sure I am right? I’ve been offering public bets of the nickel of some high-karma person versus my $100, which seems like a fair and attractive bet for anyone who doubts my credibility and ability to reason about the things I am talking about.
I will happily bet anyone with significant karma that Yudkowsky will find my work on the ethicophysics valuable a year from now, at the odds given above.
I have around 2K karma and will take that bet at those odds, for up to 1000 dollars on my side.
Resolution criteria are to ask EY about his views on this sequence as of December 1st 2024, literally “which of Zac or MadHatter won this bet”, and resolves no payment if he declined to respond or does not explicitly rule for any other reason.
I’m happy to pay my loss by eg Venmo, and would request winnings as a receipt for your donation to GiveWell’s all-grants fund.
OK. I can only personally afford to be wrong to the tune of about $10K, which would be what, $5 on your part? Did I do that math correctly?
Yep, arithmetic matches. However if 10K is the limit you can reasonably afford, I’d be more comfortable betting my $1 against your $2000.
OK, sounds good! Consider it a bet.
Hey @MadHatter—Eliezer confirms that I’ve won our bet.
I ask that you donate my winnings to GiveWell’s All Grants fund, here, via credit card or ACH (preferred due to lower fees). Please check the box for “I would like to dedicate this donation to someone” and include zac@zhd.dev as the notification email address so that I can confirm here that you’ve done so.
Has @MadHatter replied or transferred the money yet?
We’ve been in touch, and agreed that MatHatter will make the donation by end of February. I’ll post a final update in this thread when I get the confirmation from GiveWell.
Done! Setting a calendar reminder; see you in a year.
Zac wins.
Change your beliefs
Convince literally one specific other person that you’re right and your quest is important, and have them help translate for a broader audience