Nitpick: shouldn’t the answer to the disease question be 1⁄50.95 (instead of 1⁄50)? One person has the disease, and 49.95 (5% of 999) are false positives. So there are 50.95 total positives.
Yeah, I rounded. Using Bayes’ theorem, the probability is .196 or so, so that gives .98/50.
Nitpick: shouldn’t the answer to the disease question be 1⁄50.95 (instead of 1⁄50)? One person has the disease, and 49.95 (5% of 999) are false positives. So there are 50.95 total positives.
Yeah, I rounded. Using Bayes’ theorem, the probability is .196 or so, so that gives .98/50.