I assume that I have an error per each inference step
This.
The further a reasoning reaches, the more likely to be wrong.
Any step could be not accurate enough, or not account for unknown effects in unusual situations, or rely on things we have no mean of knowing.
Typical signs that it is drifting too much from reality :
Numbers way outside usual ranges.
Errors or imagination produce these easily, reality not.
Making one pivotal to the known world.
One is central to one’s map, not to reality.
Extremely small cause having catastrophic effect.
If so, then why has it not already happened ? Also: pandering to our taste for stories.
Vastly changing some portions seems just as valid.
The reasoning is rooted in itself, not reality.
Pascal’s mugging lights them all, and it certainly reaches far.
This.
The further a reasoning reaches, the more likely to be wrong.
Any step could be not accurate enough, or not account for unknown effects in unusual situations, or rely on things we have no mean of knowing.
Typical signs that it is drifting too much from reality :
Numbers way outside usual ranges.
Errors or imagination produce these easily, reality not.
Making one pivotal to the known world.
One is central to one’s map, not to reality.
Extremely small cause having catastrophic effect.
If so, then why has it not already happened ? Also: pandering to our taste for stories.
Vastly changing some portions seems just as valid.
The reasoning is rooted in itself, not reality.
Pascal’s mugging lights them all, and it certainly reaches far.