I think that if Lesswrong wants to be less wrong, then questions “why do you believe in that?” should not be downvoted.
As for the question itself, I know next to nothing about the situation on this NPP, but just from priors I’d give 70% that if someone shelled it, it was Russian army.
1) It is easier to shoot at NPP if you don’t know what you re shooting at. Russian army is much more likely to mistake this target for something else.
2) p(Russian government lies that it wasn’t them | it was them) > p(Ukrainian government lies it wasn’t them | it was them) (I believe in that since I believe that the left number is very very close to 1.)
3) I am under impression that Russian army uses a lot more artillery. It is somewhat less important for such important target (Ukrainian army is probably incentivized to concentrate their limited resources here), but probably still important.
I’d also like to hear an opinion of somebody who have more information about this.
I think that if Lesswrong wants to be less wrong, then questions “why do you believe in that?” should not be downvoted.
As for the question itself, I know next to nothing about the situation on this NPP, but just from priors I’d give 70% that if someone shelled it, it was Russian army.
1) It is easier to shoot at NPP if you don’t know what you re shooting at. Russian army is much more likely to mistake this target for something else.
2) p(Russian government lies that it wasn’t them | it was them) > p(Ukrainian government lies it wasn’t them | it was them) (I believe in that since I believe that the left number is very very close to 1.)
3) I am under impression that Russian army uses a lot more artillery. It is somewhat less important for such important target (Ukrainian army is probably incentivized to concentrate their limited resources here), but probably still important.
I’d also like to hear an opinion of somebody who have more information about this.