I think you’re overestimating at 20% as well. More importantly, you don’t have any information that other investors don’t, so it’s hard to see that the full value of your prediction is available (some of it may be; the competing investors may be more short-sighted or conservative than they should be). As evidence for this, TSLA _already_ has a p/e around 200, compared to an automotive segment average around 20. So the first order of magnitude is already baked in.
disclosure: I drive a Tesla Model S, which I love and am convinced it’s the best car on the market at any price (superseded only by more recent model years). I work for and my investments are slightly overweighted toward un-vested stock (which I routinely sell for diversity as soon as possible, which makes me SIGNIFICANTLY poorer than the counterfactual me who just kept it all) a large tech company. Taking my financial advice is even dumber than investing based on high-level semi-random probability estimates based on an outside view of a complicated market.
I think you’re overestimating at 20% as well. More importantly, you don’t have any information that other investors don’t, so it’s hard to see that the full value of your prediction is available (some of it may be; the competing investors may be more short-sighted or conservative than they should be). As evidence for this, TSLA _already_ has a p/e around 200, compared to an automotive segment average around 20. So the first order of magnitude is already baked in.
disclosure: I drive a Tesla Model S, which I love and am convinced it’s the best car on the market at any price (superseded only by more recent model years). I work for and my investments are slightly overweighted toward un-vested stock (which I routinely sell for diversity as soon as possible, which makes me SIGNIFICANTLY poorer than the counterfactual me who just kept it all) a large tech company. Taking my financial advice is even dumber than investing based on high-level semi-random probability estimates based on an outside view of a complicated market.