An Empistemically Rational Superbowl

American football has some properties that make it useful for practicing making predictions:

A game consists of a sequence of discrete plays with well-defined outcomes
The plays are fast enough that you get quick feedback on each prediction, and there are enough plays in a game that you can make enough predictions to see how well calibrated you are
You go into each prediction with at least some information about what you’re predicting

I’ve created a forecasting practice exercise that you can do while watching a game, either on paper or using this spreadsheet.

For those with no idea how football works, there’s a decent basic intro here.

Instructions

Before each down, write down the probability that the current frame will succeed (result in a first down or a touchdown). Once the frame finishes, write the outcome next to your prediction. Repeat.

Optionally, on the special plays (kickoff, punt, field goal attempt, and 2 point attempt), predict whether that play will succeed, and then write down the outcome.

For a field goal or 2 point attempt, success or failure is clear: the team attempting to score either does or doesn’t.

For punts and kickoffs, there isn’t a sharp dividing line between success and failure, but one definition you can use is that the kick is “successful” if the result is better for the kicking team than a touchback.