I agree that in real life the entropy argument is an argument in favor of it being actually pretty hard to fool a superintelligence into thinking it might be early in Tegmark III when it’s not (even if you yourself are a superintelligence, unless you’re doing a huge amount of intercepting its internal sanity checks (which puts significant strain on the trade possibilities and which flirts with being a technical-threat)). And I agree that if you can’t fool a superintelligence into thinking it might be early in Tegmark III when it’s not, then the purchasing power of simulators drops dramatically, except in cases where they’re trolling local aliens. (But the point seems basically moot, as ‘troll local aliens’ is still an option, and so afaict this does all essentially iron out to “maybe we’ll get sold to aliens”.)
I agree that in real life the entropy argument is an argument in favor of it being actually pretty hard to fool a superintelligence into thinking it might be early in Tegmark III when it’s not (even if you yourself are a superintelligence, unless you’re doing a huge amount of intercepting its internal sanity checks (which puts significant strain on the trade possibilities and which flirts with being a technical-threat)). And I agree that if you can’t fool a superintelligence into thinking it might be early in Tegmark III when it’s not, then the purchasing power of simulators drops dramatically, except in cases where they’re trolling local aliens. (But the point seems basically moot, as ‘troll local aliens’ is still an option, and so afaict this does all essentially iron out to “maybe we’ll get sold to aliens”.)