If you’re right, you will all be dead, so it won’t matter
Posting a concrete forecast might motivate some people to switch into working on the problem, work harder on it, or reduce work that increases risk (e.g. capabilities work). This might then make the forecast less accurate, but that seems like a small price to pay vs everyone being dead. (And you could always update in response to people’s response).
Posting a concrete forecast might motivate some people to switch into working on the problem, work harder on it, or reduce work that increases risk (e.g. capabilities work). This might then make the forecast less accurate, but that seems like a small price to pay vs everyone being dead. (And you could always update in response to people’s response).