Irrelevant. If there is any possible explanation where he provides the support without that specific deal, it is automatically less likely that both happen, even if the most likely scenario (90%+) of supporting unwed mothers is given said deal. If it is the only possibility, the scenarios would be equally likely; the conjunction could still not possibly be more likely.
Your comment cleared up quite a bit for me: this was my initial objection (that Reagan would likely only do so as part of a compromise), but the conjunction is at most equally likely. It does bring up for me another question, though: that of the hidden disjunction. For myself, this is the most insidious tripping point: my brain assumes that if Reagan were to compromise, that information would be provided, and so extrapolates the first statement to “Reagan provides support for unwed mothers without taking anything,” and then rules that conjunction as less likely than that he did trade something. I’d be curious to know if anyone else has the same sticking point: it seems to be baked into how I process language (a la Tom Scott’s rules of implicit assumption of utility).
Reagan would be unlikely to provide support to unwed mothers, but maybe as part of a deal in which he got what he wanted, a reduction in expenditures.
Irrelevant. If there is any possible explanation where he provides the support without that specific deal, it is automatically less likely that both happen, even if the most likely scenario (90%+) of supporting unwed mothers is given said deal. If it is the only possibility, the scenarios would be equally likely; the conjunction could still not possibly be more likely.
Your comment cleared up quite a bit for me: this was my initial objection (that Reagan would likely only do so as part of a compromise), but the conjunction is at most equally likely. It does bring up for me another question, though: that of the hidden disjunction. For myself, this is the most insidious tripping point: my brain assumes that if Reagan were to compromise, that information would be provided, and so extrapolates the first statement to “Reagan provides support for unwed mothers without taking anything,” and then rules that conjunction as less likely than that he did trade something. I’d be curious to know if anyone else has the same sticking point: it seems to be baked into how I process language (a la Tom Scott’s rules of implicit assumption of utility).