Only piece of information we’re missing is how many people started in the tournament which would allow us to find out how many points he would need to get top8.
You sound like you know what a Magic tournament is about way more than I do (don’t know what counts as a draw, or if there even is such a thing) and have revised my estimates accordingly.
(1) .1 (2) .35 (3) .35 (4).18 (5).02
5 is low due to pjeby’s comment, the .02 is my probability that he would slash my tires or is wrong.
Draws are possible in Magic (kill both players at the same time), but they’re quite rare. Unless for some reason you wanted to draw instead of win, in which case you could do so intentionally.
In an online tournament, in addition to anything the tournament format itself allows, there’s always another way to get eliminated: disconnect / failure to show up. I don’t remember the disconnect rate in Magic online being particularly high, but a tournament does involve a significant amount of time for people to misplan.
Drawn games are rare, but drawn matches are fairly common. A match is drawn if it runs over the time limit without either player winning, or if it’s best 2 of 3 and each player has one win when the time limit is reached.
I didn’t consider disconnects. Those would tend to greatly increase the forfeit rate, over the forfeit rate I observed from in-person tournaments.
We don’t know how many people were in the tournament, but we do have a very good proxy: the number of rounds in the Swiss portion. Swiss tournaments are supposed to have between log_2(P) and log_2(P)+1 rounds, where P is the number of players, so the tournament had between 64 and 128 players.
Only piece of information we’re missing is how many people started in the tournament which would allow us to find out how many points he would need to get top8.
You sound like you know what a Magic tournament is about way more than I do (don’t know what counts as a draw, or if there even is such a thing) and have revised my estimates accordingly.
(1) .1 (2) .35 (3) .35 (4).18 (5).02
5 is low due to pjeby’s comment, the .02 is my probability that he would slash my tires or is wrong.
Draws are possible in Magic (kill both players at the same time), but they’re quite rare. Unless for some reason you wanted to draw instead of win, in which case you could do so intentionally.
In an online tournament, in addition to anything the tournament format itself allows, there’s always another way to get eliminated: disconnect / failure to show up. I don’t remember the disconnect rate in Magic online being particularly high, but a tournament does involve a significant amount of time for people to misplan.
Drawn games are rare, but drawn matches are fairly common. A match is drawn if it runs over the time limit without either player winning, or if it’s best 2 of 3 and each player has one win when the time limit is reached.
I didn’t consider disconnects. Those would tend to greatly increase the forfeit rate, over the forfeit rate I observed from in-person tournaments.
We don’t know how many people were in the tournament, but we do have a very good proxy: the number of rounds in the Swiss portion. Swiss tournaments are supposed to have between log_2(P) and log_2(P)+1 rounds, where P is the number of players, so the tournament had between 64 and 128 players.