Agree that empirical performance is a very important way to assess experts.
Unfortunately it can be tricky. In the RCT example, you need expertise to be able to evaluate the RCT. It’s not just about knowing about their existence, but also you’d need to be able to eg avoid p-hacking, file-drawer effects and other methodological issues. Especially in a high stakes adversarial landscape like national politics. Joe Biden himself doesn’t have enough expertise to assess empirical performance using RCTs. And it’s unclear if even any of his advisors can.
Agree that empirical performance is a very important way to assess experts.
Unfortunately it can be tricky. In the RCT example, you need expertise to be able to evaluate the RCT. It’s not just about knowing about their existence, but also you’d need to be able to eg avoid p-hacking, file-drawer effects and other methodological issues. Especially in a high stakes adversarial landscape like national politics. Joe Biden himself doesn’t have enough expertise to assess empirical performance using RCTs. And it’s unclear if even any of his advisors can.