If the only transmissible message is essentially uniformly random bits, then of what value is the oracle?
I claim the message can contain lots of information. E.g. if there are 2^100 potential actions, but only 2 fixed points, then 99 bits have been transmitted (relative to uniform).
The rock-paper-scissors example is relatively special, in that the oracle can’t narrow down the space of actions at all.
The UP situation looks to me to be more like the first situation than the second.
It would help to have a more formal model, but as far as I can tell the oracle can only narrow down its predictions of the future to the extent that those predictions are independent of the oracle’s output. That is to say, if the people in the universe ignore what the oracle says, then the oracle can give an informative prediction.
This would seem to exactly rule out any type of signal which depends on the oracle’s output, which is precisely the types of signals that nostalgebraist was concerned about.
That can’t be right in general. Normal nash equilibria can narrow down predictions of actions. E.g. competition game. This is despite each player’s decision being dependent on the other player’s action.
We need a proper mathematical model to study this further. I expect it to be difficult to set up because the situation is so unrealistic/impossible as to be hard to model. But if you do have a model in mind I’ll take a look
If the only transmissible message is essentially uniformly random bits, then of what value is the oracle?
I claim the message can contain lots of information. E.g. if there are 2^100 potential actions, but only 2 fixed points, then 99 bits have been transmitted (relative to uniform).
The rock-paper-scissors example is relatively special, in that the oracle can’t narrow down the space of actions at all.
The UP situation looks to me to be more like the first situation than the second.
It would help to have a more formal model, but as far as I can tell the oracle can only narrow down its predictions of the future to the extent that those predictions are independent of the oracle’s output. That is to say, if the people in the universe ignore what the oracle says, then the oracle can give an informative prediction.
This would seem to exactly rule out any type of signal which depends on the oracle’s output, which is precisely the types of signals that nostalgebraist was concerned about.
That can’t be right in general. Normal nash equilibria can narrow down predictions of actions. E.g. competition game. This is despite each player’s decision being dependent on the other player’s action.
That’s fair, yeah
We need a proper mathematical model to study this further. I expect it to be difficult to set up because the situation is so unrealistic/impossible as to be hard to model. But if you do have a model in mind I’ll take a look