Stephen Hsu estimates that we’ll be able to have genetically enhanced children with IQs ~15 points higher in the next 10 years.
Bostrom and Carl Schulman’s paper on iterated embryo selection roughly agrees.
It seems almost too good to be true. The arguments/facts that lead us to believe that it will happen soon are:
we do pre-screening for other traits. The reason we can’t do it for intelligence at the moment is that we don’t know what genes to select for.
We will get that data soon, as the cost of genetic sequencing falls faster than Moore’s law.
I still “alieve” that it’s too good to be true. Does anybody have any reason to doubt the claims made above?
Also, the ~15 point estimate is based on the assumption that we don’t do iterated embryo selection (which can’t be done in humans yet).
The difference between having a child with an IQ 55 vs IQ 145 partner already gives you more than 15 IQ points in your child on average.
That amounts to claiming h²=1/3, which is awfully low.
The supply of IQ-145 partners is limited. That aside, I don’t think I understand your point.
By using partner selection you can already greatly increase the expected IQ of your children (worked for me!), so it shouldn’t surprise us that other methods will also work to do this. The supply of sperm from IQ>145 men isn’t all that limited.
Stephen Hsu estimates that we’ll be able to have genetically enhanced children with IQs ~15 points higher in the next 10 years.
Bostrom and Carl Schulman’s paper on iterated embryo selection roughly agrees.
It seems almost too good to be true. The arguments/facts that lead us to believe that it will happen soon are:
we do pre-screening for other traits. The reason we can’t do it for intelligence at the moment is that we don’t know what genes to select for.
We will get that data soon, as the cost of genetic sequencing falls faster than Moore’s law.
I still “alieve” that it’s too good to be true. Does anybody have any reason to doubt the claims made above?
Also, the ~15 point estimate is based on the assumption that we don’t do iterated embryo selection (which can’t be done in humans yet).
The difference between having a child with an IQ 55 vs IQ 145 partner already gives you more than 15 IQ points in your child on average.
That amounts to claiming h²=1/3, which is awfully low.
The supply of IQ-145 partners is limited. That aside, I don’t think I understand your point.
By using partner selection you can already greatly increase the expected IQ of your children (worked for me!), so it shouldn’t surprise us that other methods will also work to do this. The supply of sperm from IQ>145 men isn’t all that limited.