I have a minor nitpick, which I would not normally comment on, but I think this post deserves to be more polished and held to a higher standard than regular posts.
Additionally, there is a tendency among humans to use vague and ambiguous language that is equally compatible with multiple interpretations, such as the time that a group converged on agreement that there was “a very real chance” of a certain outcome, only to discover later, in one-on-one interviews, that at least one person meant that outcome was 20% likely, and at least one other meant it was 80% likely (which are exactly opposite claims, in that 20% likely means 80% unlikely).
my nitpicking is not about the idea, or the paragraph, but rather the specific point of those two claims being “exact opposites”.
There are examples of situations where “a very real chance” is a major and useful update, even when it makes one person think of 20% and the other of 80%. For example, if a team of scientists agree that “there is a very real chance” the sun is going to explode within the next month. It is useful from that point to get a more precise estimate than something that vague, but I would not call 20% and 80% estimates “exactly opposite claims”, as they are both major updates in the same direction from e.g. 0.00001%.
I have a minor nitpick, which I would not normally comment on, but I think this post deserves to be more polished and held to a higher standard than regular posts.
my nitpicking is not about the idea, or the paragraph, but rather the specific point of those two claims being “exact opposites”.
There are examples of situations where “a very real chance” is a major and useful update, even when it makes one person think of 20% and the other of 80%. For example, if a team of scientists agree that “there is a very real chance” the sun is going to explode within the next month. It is useful from that point to get a more precise estimate than something that vague, but I would not call 20% and 80% estimates “exactly opposite claims”, as they are both major updates in the same direction from e.g. 0.00001%.