Those predictions are terribly vague. He produces an illusion of precise predictions about the timing of the power of various factions, as in graphs in his TED talk, but gives no explanation of what these numbers mean. It’s not even clear who are the “moneyed interests.” It’s probably clear who are the different factions of mullahs, but how can we verify that one group has gained power? All this leaves of his prediction is that of the three choices of nothing nuclear, civilian power, and publicly endorsing weapons, he chooses the middle path, the status quo. (there’s also the part about weapons grade uranium. I guess that’s something.) Maybe always predicting the status quo gets you a better track record than most experts, but it’s not a good enough track record to care.
The fact that he does marketing, is not evidence against his prediction abilities, but it is important not to be distracted by the marketing.
Well, in 21 months we’ll be able to have some partial track record:
http://wrongtomorrow.com/authors/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita
Those predictions are terribly vague. He produces an illusion of precise predictions about the timing of the power of various factions, as in graphs in his TED talk, but gives no explanation of what these numbers mean. It’s not even clear who are the “moneyed interests.” It’s probably clear who are the different factions of mullahs, but how can we verify that one group has gained power? All this leaves of his prediction is that of the three choices of nothing nuclear, civilian power, and publicly endorsing weapons, he chooses the middle path, the status quo. (there’s also the part about weapons grade uranium. I guess that’s something.) Maybe always predicting the status quo gets you a better track record than most experts, but it’s not a good enough track record to care.
The fact that he does marketing, is not evidence against his prediction abilities, but it is important not to be distracted by the marketing.