It seems to me that rounding infinitesimal chances to zero gives the greatest realised expected value during your life.
Chance of winning the lottery? Infinitesimal = rounds to zero = don’t buy lotto tickets.
Chance of income increasing if you learn programming? > 5% = consider learning programming.
There are so many different things one can do, and only a limited number that can be done with the time and resources we have.
Jettison the actions with infinitesimal chances in favour of actions with low-to-likely levels of probability.
Across all universes, if every one of you plays the lottery every week, a very small percentage of you will end up highly wealthy — but that doesn’t help the rest of you, who are $40 per week (compounding) poorer.
In terms of utility, the first $50m that the rich yous win will deliver much more utility than the next $50m.
Average utility will be higher if every you had $50m, rather than a small percentage of yous having $500m.
This suggests a focus on actions with smaller payoffs but higher probabilities.
It seems to me that rounding infinitesimal chances to zero gives the greatest realised expected value during your life. Chance of winning the lottery? Infinitesimal = rounds to zero = don’t buy lotto tickets. Chance of income increasing if you learn programming? > 5% = consider learning programming. There are so many different things one can do, and only a limited number that can be done with the time and resources we have. Jettison the actions with infinitesimal chances in favour of actions with low-to-likely levels of probability.
Across all universes, if every one of you plays the lottery every week, a very small percentage of you will end up highly wealthy — but that doesn’t help the rest of you, who are $40 per week (compounding) poorer. In terms of utility, the first $50m that the rich yous win will deliver much more utility than the next $50m. Average utility will be higher if every you had $50m, rather than a small percentage of yous having $500m. This suggests a focus on actions with smaller payoffs but higher probabilities.