Ok, I take your bet for 2030. I win, you give me $1000. You win, I give you $3000. Want to propose an arbiter?
(since someone else also took the bet, I’ll get just half the bet, their $500 vs my $1500)
Shouldn’t it be: ‘They pay you $1,000 now, and in 3 years, you pay them back plus $3,000’ (as per Bryan Caplan’s discussion in the latest 80k podcast episode)? The money won’t do anyone much good if they receive in it a FOOM scenario.
Since my goal is to convince people that I take my beliefs seriously, and this amount of money is not actually going to change much about how I conduct the next three years of my life, I’m not worried about the details. Also, I’m not betting that there will be a FOOM scenario by the conclusion of the bet, just that we’ll have made frightening progress towards one.
Ok, I take your bet for 2030. I win, you give me $1000. You win, I give you $3000. Want to propose an arbiter? (since someone else also took the bet, I’ll get just half the bet, their $500 vs my $1500)
Shouldn’t it be: ‘They pay you $1,000 now, and in 3 years, you pay them back plus $3,000’ (as per Bryan Caplan’s discussion in the latest 80k podcast episode)? The money won’t do anyone much good if they receive in it a FOOM scenario.
Since my goal is to convince people that I take my beliefs seriously, and this amount of money is not actually going to change much about how I conduct the next three years of my life, I’m not worried about the details. Also, I’m not betting that there will be a FOOM scenario by the conclusion of the bet, just that we’ll have made frightening progress towards one.
Related: just for your amusement, here’s a link to a bet about AI timelines that I won, but which I incorrectly believed that I would not win before the end of 2022. In other words, evidence of me being surprised by the high rate of AI progress… Interesting, eh? https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b#pzSuEYIhRiXoIFSjPQz2