We also propose betting using a mechanism that mitigates some of these issues:
Since we recognize that betting incentives can be weak over long time-horizons, we are also offering the option of employing Tamay’s recently described betting procedure in which we would enter a series of repeated 2-year contracts until the resolution date.
We also propose betting using a mechanism that mitigates some of these issues:
Also, we give odds of 1:1 if anyone wants to take us up on the bet for January 1st 2026.