First, $1000 is basically nothing these days, so no skin in the game. Something more leveraged would show that you are at least mildly serious.
Second, none of your benchmarks are FOOMy. I would go for something like “At least one ML/AI company has an AI writing essential algorithms” (possibly validated by humans before being deployed).
Should be pointed out that $1000 is no skin in the game to you. To some people I know, $1000 would have been nearly lifesaving at certain points in their lives.
Do you simply think $1000 wouldn’t be nearly-lifesaving money for the authors? If so, I think you’ve kind of missed the point; you’ve replied to “X might not be true, e.g. in situation Y” by saying “but Y probably doesn’t apply”. Okay, but X still might not be true.
Or do you think $1000 is no-skin-in-the-game / not-even-mildly-serious money for the authors? If so I think you’re probably wrong, and even more probably overconfident.
(I object mostly to the “at least mildly serious” part. I’m in a position where $1000 wouldn’t make a noticeable difference to my life, so maybe it wouldn’t be skin in the game for me. But I’m still not going to throw away $1000 on a bet I’m not even mildly serious about.)
(Also: it feels distasteful to me to speculate about the authors’ wealth here, and this kind of conversation feels like it’s going to put pressure on them to share. I want to disavow that pressure, though I acknowledge the question is relevant.)
Hmm, two points:
First, $1000 is basically nothing these days, so no skin in the game. Something more leveraged would show that you are at least mildly serious.
Second, none of your benchmarks are FOOMy. I would go for something like “At least one ML/AI company has an AI writing essential algorithms” (possibly validated by humans before being deployed).
Should be pointed out that $1000 is no skin in the game to you. To some people I know, $1000 would have been nearly lifesaving at certain points in their lives.
I’d be very surprised if that were the case for the two authors, but who knows.
Might not be for the other people taking the bet. 1000$ is a lot to me.
Fine, but the offer was for “up to $1000”
Do you simply think $1000 wouldn’t be nearly-lifesaving money for the authors? If so, I think you’ve kind of missed the point; you’ve replied to “X might not be true, e.g. in situation Y” by saying “but Y probably doesn’t apply”. Okay, but X still might not be true.
Or do you think $1000 is no-skin-in-the-game / not-even-mildly-serious money for the authors? If so I think you’re probably wrong, and even more probably overconfident.
(I object mostly to the “at least mildly serious” part. I’m in a position where $1000 wouldn’t make a noticeable difference to my life, so maybe it wouldn’t be skin in the game for me. But I’m still not going to throw away $1000 on a bet I’m not even mildly serious about.)
(Also: it feels distasteful to me to speculate about the authors’ wealth here, and this kind of conversation feels like it’s going to put pressure on them to share. I want to disavow that pressure, though I acknowledge the question is relevant.)