First: we have taken the 1:1 bet for January 1st 2026 with Tomás B. at our $500 to his $500.
Second: we have taken the 3:1 bet for January 1st 2030 with Nathan Helm-Burger at our $500 to his $1500
Personal note
Just as a personal note (I’m not speaking for Tamay here), I expect to lose the 2030 bet with >50% probability. I took it because it has positive EV on my view, though not as much as I believed when I first drafted the bet. I also disagree with comments here that state that these bets imply that I have short timelines. I think there’s a huge gap between AI performing well on benchmarks, and AI having a large economic splash in the real world.
Here, we mostly focused on benchmarks because I think these metrics are fairly neutral markers between takeoff views. By this I mean that I expect fast-takeoff folks to think that AI will do well on benchmarks before we get to AGI, even if they think AI will have roughly zero economic impact before then. Since I wanted my bet to be applicable to people without slow-takeoff views, we went with benchmarks.
Update: We have taken the bet with 2 people.
First: we have taken the 1:1 bet for January 1st 2026 with Tomás B. at our $500 to his $500.
Second: we have taken the 3:1 bet for January 1st 2030 with Nathan Helm-Burger at our $500 to his $1500
Personal note
Just as a personal note (I’m not speaking for Tamay here), I expect to lose the 2030 bet with >50% probability. I took it because it has positive EV on my view, though not as much as I believed when I first drafted the bet. I also disagree with comments here that state that these bets imply that I have short timelines. I think there’s a huge gap between AI performing well on benchmarks, and AI having a large economic splash in the real world.
Here, we mostly focused on benchmarks because I think these metrics are fairly neutral markers between takeoff views. By this I mean that I expect fast-takeoff folks to think that AI will do well on benchmarks before we get to AGI, even if they think AI will have roughly zero economic impact before then. Since I wanted my bet to be applicable to people without slow-takeoff views, we went with benchmarks.
I should probably account for the fact that I am the only one who took the 1:1 bet, but still I foolishly think I will win.