On the reduced value of money given catastrophe: that could be used in a betting circumstance. Someone giving higher-than-market estimates could take a high-interest “loan” from the person giving lower estimates of catastrophe. This can be rational and efficient for both of them, and help “price in” the implied probability of doom.
On the reduced value of money given catastrophe: that could be used in a betting circumstance. Someone giving higher-than-market estimates could take a high-interest “loan” from the person giving lower estimates of catastrophe. This can be rational and efficient for both of them, and help “price in” the implied probability of doom.
Well, if OP is willing then I’d love to take a high-interest loan from him to be paid back in 2030.