Also, I probably assume more readers accept the framework than they do. That prediction markets are worth using, that a market’s accuracy rises in a vaguely lognormal way with trading activity, and a random reader usually can’t beat it unless the market has few traders. I could try including a link to Scott Alexander making similar points for me.
Short forms it is! Thank you.
Also, I probably assume more readers accept the framework than they do. That prediction markets are worth using, that a market’s accuracy rises in a vaguely lognormal way with trading activity, and a random reader usually can’t beat it unless the market has few traders. I could try including a link to Scott Alexander making similar points for me.