Robert Aumann’s Agreement Theorem shows that honest Bayesians cannot agree to disagree—if they have common knowledge of their probability estimates, they have the same probability estimate.
Um, doesn’t this also depend on them having common priors?
James
Yes. More importantly, it depends on them being honest Bayesians, which humans are not.
Robert Aumann’s Agreement Theorem shows that honest Bayesians cannot agree to disagree—if they have common knowledge of their probability estimates, they have the same probability estimate.
Um, doesn’t this also depend on them having common priors?
James
Yes. More importantly, it depends on them being honest Bayesians, which humans are not.