I’m still worried about the risk of long COVID. See e.g., Katja Grace’s recent post, though I am still trying to incorporate the comments on that post into my mental model. I also saw some really concerning Twitter threads on long COVID, but I don’t know how good the posters’ epistemics are, and don’t know how they interface with say, Zvi/Scott/Elizabeth’s earlier analyses of earlier studies on long COVID which treat it as a minor concern.
Zvi/Scott/Elizabeth’s earlier analyses of earlier studies on long COVID which treat it as a minor concern
My impression from Scott’s big post was that it was not overwhelmingly likely to be minor, and rather that it was fairly ambiguous. My impression from Elizabeth’s analyses (that I’ve read several months ago) is that long COVID is not necessarily a minor concern, but that we’re paying disproportionate attention to it relative to other things we can also worry about, e.g. exercise, air quality, other infections, and there can be real tradeoffs between getting more exercise and avoiding COVID.
Did they write something more recently to suggest that it was a minor concern, or did you get a different impression from their writing?
I saw Katja’s post too, and had a reasonably big update from it, although I don’t think she addresses the impact of vaccination status on long-cov probability or badness, so my update is smaller than it might have been.
I’m still worried about the risk of long COVID. See e.g., Katja Grace’s recent post, though I am still trying to incorporate the comments on that post into my mental model. I also saw some really concerning Twitter threads on long COVID, but I don’t know how good the posters’ epistemics are, and don’t know how they interface with say, Zvi/Scott/Elizabeth’s earlier analyses of earlier studies on long COVID which treat it as a minor concern.
My impression from Scott’s big post was that it was not overwhelmingly likely to be minor, and rather that it was fairly ambiguous. My impression from Elizabeth’s analyses (that I’ve read several months ago) is that long COVID is not necessarily a minor concern, but that we’re paying disproportionate attention to it relative to other things we can also worry about, e.g. exercise, air quality, other infections, and there can be real tradeoffs between getting more exercise and avoiding COVID.
Did they write something more recently to suggest that it was a minor concern, or did you get a different impression from their writing?
I’m not sure what you’re referring to for Zvi.
I saw Katja’s post too, and had a reasonably big update from it, although I don’t think she addresses the impact of vaccination status on long-cov probability or badness, so my update is smaller than it might have been.